EU’s renewable energy ambition is a “wake up call” for Japan

If Japan embraces the same momentum on clean power as the EU, could it be enough to put Japan on target for 100% clean power by 2035? 

This will depend on the extent of ambition for solar and wind. The EU targets commit it to about 52%. However, METI is projecting just 20% for Japan. In the IEA’s “Achieving Net Zero Electricity Sectors in G7 Members”, wind and solar reach 42% of G7 electricity generation in 2030.

The latest set of 1.5-aligned scenarios used by the IPCC broadly align with the IEA’s milestones of 40% of solar and wind by 2030, and needing near-100% clean power in the OECD by 2035. Here’s what Japan can do to meet these targets:

Solar: The EU is planning 750 GW (DC) of solar by 2030, which means 64 GW per year from 2021 to 2030. Central to this plan is building new rooftop solar. The EU proposes making solar panels mandatory for all public and new residential buildings by 2025 and 2029, respectively. As a result, rooftop solar will make up over half the EU’s total solar capacity by 2030. 

By contrast, Japan last year installed only 6 GW of solar, according to IEA data, which is a tenth of the EU projected build-rate. Only one tenth of Japan’s solar went onto rooftops, with the vast majority of solar additions in the form of solar farms. This ignores what has been the bedrock of Australia and now the EU’s approach to expanding their solar capacity. It also means that Japan has a significant opportunity to tap into the potential for rooftop solar, just as the EU is now planning to do. The EU’s ambition on rooftop solar shows that the current perception that Japan is doing everything it can to expand renewables is incorrect. 

What’s more, the costs for rooftop solar are not high. The latest results for Germany’s rooftop solar auctions on 15 May 2022 were for prices of $90 (€85) per megawatt hour. The price was 23% higher than the first auction in July 2021, as international inflation pushed up costs. However, compared to coal and gas price rises, renewables are deflationary. Expanding Japan’s rooftop solar industry represents an incredible untapped opportunity to further increase the security and sustainability of Japan’s energy system.

Wind: For onshore wind, Germany is planning to set aside 2% of the country’s landmass for the development of onshore wind energy. For offshore wind, just four EU countries – Belgium, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands  – have announced an offshore wind target of 65 GW by 2030. A further 50 GW is promised from the UK alone by 2030, including floating wind. Combined, that’s more than ten times Japan’s current 10 GW target, announced back in 2020.