
Breadcrumbs
Energy independence only comes with clean
Türkiye relies on fossil fuel imports for half of power generation - that can be halved by 2030 with a faster transition to clean power sources. Solar power in particular needs to be a vital component of this transition.
Available in: Türkçe
Highlights
50%
The share of imported fossil fuels in power generation as of 2021 in Türkiye
40 GW
The total solar power capacity by 2030 in order to halve foreign dependence in power generation, up from 8.8 GW as of August 2022
30 GW
The total wind power capacity by 2030 in order to halve foreign dependence in power generation, up from 11.1 GW as of August 2022
About
This study presents a summary of various electricity transition pathways towards 2030 under the guidance of recently conducted modeling studies on the Turkish electricity system. The results here are aimed to guide and understand the targets to be set in the long-awaited Turkish Ministry Of Energy’s new long term energy plan which is expected to be in line with Türkiye’s 2053 net zero target.
Executive summary
Planning for more clean energy will give Türkiye independence from foreign fossil fuel imports
In 2021 Türkiye announced a net zero target by 2053. Now the country needs to adjust its long term energy plan to match. A power system aligned with the net zero plan will not only decarbonize electricity, but also make Türkiye more independent.
Regional Lead Türkiye, Ukraine & the Western Balkans Ember
The world has woken up to the fact that relying on fossil fuels for electricity is expensive and unreliable. The solution is to harness cheap and clean renewables: wind and solar. Wind and solar will play a crucial role in the future to make a country with limited energy resources like Türkiye more independent.

Background
Türkiye aims for net zero by 2053
Six years after signing the Paris Agreement, Türkiye ratified the agreement in 2021, and the parliament’s decision was followed by the announcement of a net zero target. But the country now needs a credible plan for delivering net zero.
As an emerging economy, Türkiye’s rising emissions parallels its economic growth. However, the emission reduction plan Türkiye submitted back in 2015 did not promise even a slower pace in its emission rise – putting it out of step with what will be needed for the net zero target.
The average annual growth rate of Türkiye’s greenhouse gas emissions was around 3.1% between 2000 and 2015. On the other hand, the average annual growth rate the BAU scenario Türkiye assumed in its emission reduction plan was 6.2% between 2015-2030. Even in its mitigation scenario the annual growth rate in emissions was targeted at around 5%.
Following the ratification of the Paris Agreement, Türkiye now needs to submit a new emission reduction plan with an updated NDC. Accordingly, in the climate summit’s declaration which was held in February 2022, the country is now working on a new NDC in line with the country’s 2053 net zero target. In parallel to this, in a December 2021 edition of the Official Gazette, the Ministry of Energy was assigned to prepare a new long term national energy plan in the following year which would be subject to a revision every five years. As the Turkish Energy Minister also stated recently, the new energy roadmap will be published before COP27, the United Nations climate change conference to be held in Egypt between November 6-18, 2022.
Decarbonization pathways
Solar, wind and energy efficiency are key
Four recent models of the Turkish electricity system predict a significant rise in power demand ahead and conclude that this needs to be met by the cheapest tools: solar, wind and energy efficiency.
According to all models, only a modest rise in other renewable energy sources is estimated in the next few years.
The models do reveal that small increases in hydropower, geothermal and biomass capacity can significantly reduce the capacity needed by wind and solar power, thanks to their relatively high capacity factors and less variation in their hourly generation.
Compared to the other models, the EBC sees 4-6 GW lower capacity in other renewables, which results in around 8 GW more wind capacity. On the other hand, SHURA ARES scenario compromises with higher coal generation share (16.5%) in 2030 by adding lower capacity in these other renewables.
Decarbonization = Independence
Clean energy can make Türkiye more independent
Energy transition pathways aligned with Turkey’s net zero goal can halve the country’s reliance on imports in power generation by 2030.
As the Turkish Ministry of Energy points out, Türkiye has enormous solar energy potential thanks to its geographical location and Türkiye has the highest solar panel manufacturing capacity in Europe. However, in 2021 Türkiye generated only around 4% of electricity from solar in 2021 and reached 8.8 GW solar power capacity as of August 2022. These statistics are very close to a much less sunny country than Türkiye: Ukraine.
Apart from power sector decarbonization and reaching net zero, Türkiye has very good reasons to realize its high solar potential. Solar power is cheap, it matches well with the countrywide demand profile peaking in summer due to growing need of air conditioning, and it can compensate for hydropower in dry seasons. Solar power can also help to shift some hydropower generation into winter in order to reduce peak gas demand which is hardly met during cold spells and gas supply issues. The solar potential is also more uniformly distributed across the country than other power generation sources.
Wind and solar will not only lower the power sector emissions and make the country closer to its net zero target, but will also lower the high costs of fossil fuel imports and can make a country with limited resources more independent. Wind and solar already saved Türkiye $7 billion between July 2021 and April 2022 when the gas prices were half of the current prices. The gas prices are expected to remain high until the end of 2024, therefore Türkiye’s new energy plan will not only determine its level of emission reductions, but will also determine its level of energy independence.
Supporting Material
Methodology
The scenarios covered in this analysis
Among the aforementioned studies, The Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) and Europe Beyond Coal (EBC) ran two scenarios other than the baseline scenario, with/without nuclear. The scenarios with nuclear assumed the 4.8 GW Akkuyu nuclear power plant to be completed as it was planned. The World Bank’s only decarbonization scenario assumed the nuclear project to be completed in time, while SHURA assumed between 2.4 and 4.8 GW nuclear capacities in all scenarios. Hence in this analysis we only use the scenarios taking the nuclear energy into account to make them comparable. As a matter of fact Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which is owned by the Russian government, has already received the production licenses and began construction of all four units.
SHURA has two main decarbonization scenarios: accelerated renewable energy supply scenario (ARES) and coal phase down scenario (CPD). Although several sensitivity analyses were studied on these scenarios, the results do not vary dramatically under different sensitivity analyses. Thus, in this analysis we only cover the ARES base and the CPD base scenarios.
In all of these studies the models add the cheapest power generation options into the system under various constraints and assumptions (i.e energy efficiency, electrification, net zero by 2050, a certain coal phase-out date, etc) while keeping up with the power demand. The power plants currently under construction and expected to be completed are also taken into account in the new capacity development projections of the models.
Coal share in generation varies between 0-16.5% in these scenarios. Although only EBC’s study seems to propose a coal exit among all, SHURA CPD also has an ambitious coal phase down plan estimating a 5.4% coal share in power generation in 2030. However, this projection assumes Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant to be partially completed with only 2.4 GW. By assuming 4.8 GW nuclear power capacity, most of the coal generation projected (23 TWh) could also have been replaced by 2030. Similarly if IPC did not assume around 50-65 TWh higher power demand by 2030, its coal generation projection (32 TWh) could also have been close to zero by 2030 (IPC’s model reaches coal exit by 2035). Apart from these, the World Bank projects a 9% coal share in generation by 2030.
Acknowledgements
We appreciate the valuable review and feedback received from Charles Moore, Pawel Czyzak, Hannah Broadbent and Ali Candlin. We thank Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart for her valuable contributions to data visualization, and Camilla Knudsen (World Bank) and Duygu Kutluay (Europe Beyond Coal) for providing the data enabling us to conduct our analysis.
Cover imageSolar panels on a rooftop overlooking the mountains in Bursa, Turkey, in 2021.
Credit: Harun Bilal Çagiran / EyeEm / Alamy Stock Photo