EU ETS Emissions 2019

Power sector emissions fell by 13% (129 MT), due to Europe’s coal collapse in 2019. Hard coal fell by 28% (81 MT) and lignite fell by 18% (60 MT), offset by a 3% (12 MT) rise in gas & oil generation. In our analysis of the EU Power Sector, we show that around half the power sector emissions falls came from coal-gas switching, with the other half from new wind and solar installations.

Coal power emissions are now down by 43% since 2013 – hard coal is down 57% and lignite is down 26%. In that time, the remaining gas & oil generation emissions have risen by only 7%. This led to a 29% fall in total power sector emissions in just six years. Wind and solar have replaced coal, with help from an increasing carbon price and national coal phase-out policies.

Industrial emissions fell by 2%. This is more due to a fall in industrial production than efficiency increases. Industrial production fell 0.6% in 2019 according to EUROSTAT, including a 5% fall in steel production.

Aviation rose 7%. Jet2 had the biggest increase, of 11%. The biggest aviation emitter, Ryanair, increased by 6%, and is still the 9th biggest overall emitter in Europe.

The power sector still accounted for over half (52%) of EU ETS emissions in 2019. Even after an impressive 29% fall in the last six years, rapid cuts to power sector emissions can continue. Lignite power plants emitted 17% of all EU ETS emissions (see graph below), yet generated only 9% of Europe’s electricity. Hard coal emitted another 13% of EU ETS emissions, despite generating only 10% of Europe’s electricity. The remaining gas+oil generation makes up 22% of EU ETS emissions. In total 844 million tonnes of CO2 were emitted from the power sector in 2019, summing to 52% of total EU ETS emissions.

More wind and solar is needed. While the power sector is making progress, annual renewables deployment must double from its 2010-2019 average in 2019-2030 just to meet existing EU targets.

To ensure a further rapid decline in emissions, the phase out of lignite power plants is an urgent priority. The six major remaining lignite countries are: Germany, Poland, Czechia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece. Their lignite emissions are responsible for 17% of all EU ETS emissions, yet generated only 9% of Europe’s electricity.

Of the six countries, only Greece has a sufficiently ambitious timeline to phase-out lignite. Germany’s 2038 phase-out date is too late; it’s both incompatible with the Paris Agreement and an abdication of the required climate leadership from the EU’s largest economy. Similarly, while Czechia has a set up a coal commission which will set an end date for lignite, the dates currently under discussion do not reflect the urgency of the task at hand. In Poland, Romania & Bulgaria a phase-out of lignite is not even under discussion.

Hard coal is on a path to phase-out, with the exception of Poland. Poland’s hard coal emissions exceeded Germany’s in 2019 for the first time. This means Poland’s share of Europe’s hard coal emissions has doubled from 16% in 2013 to 33% in 2019. Poland needs to urgently address not only its lignite emissions, but also its hard coal emissions. Poland’s coal power accounts for 62% of its EU ETS emissions.