
Breadcrumbs
Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2022
Global electricity demand growth was met entirely by renewable power in the first half of 2022, halting the rise in fossil fuels.
Highlights
+389
Change in global electricity demand (TWh)
+416
Change in renewable generation (TWh)
+5
Change in fossil generation (TWh)
About
This report gives mid-year insights into the global electricity transition.
It analyses electricity data from 75 countries representing 90% of global electricity demand and includes projections for changes in the remaining countries. It compares the first six months of 2022 (H1-2022) to the same period in 2021 (H1-2021) to show how the electricity transition has progressed.
Chapter 1: Global analysis
Global electricity trends in the first half of 2022
Chapter 2: Country analysis
Mid-year insights by country
In China, the rise in wind and solar generation alone met 92% of its electricity demand rise; in the US it was 81%, while in India it was 23%.
There was a spurt in electricity demand growth. The 4.2% increase in electricity demand seen in the first half of 2022, which resulted from an increase in economic activity, was much higher than the 11-year average increase of 0.5%.
Fossil generation rose by 1% in the US – however, coal power still fell, as gas generation took market share from coal. Gas increased by 5.6% (+40 TWh) and coal fell by 7% (-27 TWh) in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period last year
The switch from coal to gas continued into July and August. By the end of August, the year-to-date changes were coal down 9.2% and gas up 6.6%.
Chapter 3: The “what if” scenario
Wind and solar are already changing the global power system
What if there was no rise in wind and solar in H1-2022?
Instead of flat-lining, fossil power generation – and therefore global power sector CO2 emissions – would have risen by around 4% and resulted in an increased fuel bill of $40 billion USD.
Calculating the cost saving
Because we know how much wind and solar reduce the need for fossil fuels, we can also estimate a monetary value of the savings in fuel costs.
We assume $240/tonne of coal. This is the average Australia export price for the first half of 2022. At 40% coal power plant efficiency, and no transport or carbon costs, that calculates to $96 per MWh.
We assume $22/MBtu gas average price. This is the Q1/Q2 straight average price for TTF, Asia spot and Henry Hub prices from IEA. At 50% gas power plant efficiency, and no transport or carbon costs, that calculates to $151 per MWh.
We assume a split of a third gas generation and two-thirds coal generation, roughly in line with the overall global electricity mix, giving a weighted average price of $133/MWh.
So if the 299 TWh generated by wind and solar generation was instead generated by fossil fuel generation, that would have incurred $40 billion USD in fuel cost alone in the first half of 2022.
Conclusion
A pathway out of multiple crises
Wind and solar are proving themselves as an effective solution as the world faces escalating climate impacts, energy insecurity and economic instability.
It’s not certain that for 2022 in total the rise in renewables will cover all of the rise in electricity demand. But as wind and solar add more generation every year, that tipping point gets closer.
And when we are there, that is only the beginning. The electricity sector should be quickly reducing emissions. The fact that we’re still at or close to record highs shows how much more quickly the electricity transition needs to happen.
Supporting Material
Methodology
Data sources
The data for this report is based on Ember’s yearly and monthly electricity dataset.
You can find the full methodology for underlying emissions, generation and capacity data here. Yearly and monthly electricity data is available for download in Ember’s data catalogue.
Acknowledgements
Dave Jones, Hannah Broadbent, Nicolas Fulghum, Reynaldo Dizon, Phil MacDonald
Header imageThe first Chinese wind turbine, Hong Kong, China
Contributor: Agencja Fotograficzna Caro / Alamy Stock Photo