
Breadcrumbs
In it together: the road to a cleaner, cheaper CEE power system
Central and Eastern European countries could increase security and lower power prices through regional collaboration and more wind and solar.
Available in: Polski
Highlights
-29%
Additional wind and solar capacity will lower CEE power prices by 29%
200 GW
CEE countries could deliver 200 GW of wind and solar by 2030
100 GW
Regional collaboration could open up over 100 GW of offshore wind potential
About
In this report, Ember proposes an ambitious wind and solar expansion plan for Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania. It shows that accelerated renewables deployment can lead to improved security and lower power prices. The study uses a newly developed open model of the European power market.
Executive summary
CEE countries can increase security through accelerating wind and solar
The region should set ambitious wind and solar targets for 2030 to reduce electricity prices and become more competitive.
Senior Energy & Climate Data Analyst, Ember
This report shows what's possible for Central and Eastern Europe: a thriving, connected region powered by bountiful wind and solar. Not only will wind and solar bring economic benefits, but they are also an absolutely crucial tool to build energy security given the region’s history and close proximity to Russia. CEE needs to channel the clean power momentum sweeping across Europe, failing to do so will have dire economic and security consequences.

Wind and solar in CEE
More wind and solar brings benefits, building less brings risks
CEE countries can increase wind and solar capacity six-fold by 2030, increasing economic competitiveness and reducing energy security risks.
Genady Kondarev Senior Associate For Central And Eastern Europe, E3G
The recent reluctance of several CEE countries to adopt more ambitious EU renewable energy goals for 2030 could turn into a threat for the region’s energy security and competitiveness. This report reveals that there is a substantial commercial interest in developing renewable energy capacity in the CEE and installing it is achievable. EU instruments provide generous funding for the energy transition in the region, in addition to national budgets and potential private investment. The CEE countries should use the drafting of Recovery And Resilience Plans and the revision of the National Energy And Climate Plans due next month to signal their interest in seizing this opportunity.
Conclusion
Unlocking wind and solar brings multiple benefits
Fully accessing the renewables potential is only achievable through collaboration, both within the region and with the whole EU
- Increase administrative capacity to ensure effective usage of available EU funding for the energy transition and grid investments.
- Lower permitting times for wind and solar investments to meet the Renewable Energy Directive and emergency regulation requirements of 18-24 months.
- Increase data transparency in the areas of permitting by providing a list of projects at different stages of the development process.
Annex
Modelling the European power market
The investment cost assumptions for link expansion were based on existing TYNDP projects (e.g. the new 400 kV CZ-SK line or the HU-RO line) or the announced costs of undersea projects such as EstLink 3 and HarmonyLink and varied depending on the length of the connector and the type (land or subsea). To incentivize link expansion and based on the HarmonyLink financing structure, up to 72.5% of capex was assumed to be covered by the Connecting Europe Facility. The cost of the additional 5.5. GW expansion in the Ember sensitivity scenario is €4.9 billion with €1.4 billion funded from national sources and the rest coming from the CEF.
The results show the need for significantly expanding transit lines – between Poland, Czechia and Slovakia, as well as between Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria – allowing for better North-South electricity transits. The most congested link in the region is the one between Lithuania and Poland, requiring significant expansion and providing yet another argument for the quicker implementation of the HarmonyLink project, as well as the swift delivery of all phases of the LitPol expansion project. The additional 9.8 GW of interconnection capacity (one-way) in the Ember sensitivity scenario reduces CEE average power prices by a further 3% compared to the ambitious scenario, while also lowering wind and solar curtailment by 13%.
It’s important to note that the proposed acceleration of wind and solar requires grid expansion on all levels – from distribution, through transmission, to interconnection. The lack of distribution grid capacity is already slowing down solar farms in several European countries. It is estimated that 15 GW of renewable energy projects were declined grid connection permits in 2021 alone due to the poor condition of the Polish distribution grid. The Hungarian grid operator, MAVIR, announced last May that there was no available grid capacity for weather-dependent power plants, with no new connection requests accepted until at least May 2023. However, MAVIR has recently announced they will spend more than €1 billion in the next four years to modernise and expand the grid and believe Hungary can still reach its 2030 energy targets earlier than planned. In Czechia, grid bottlenecks are delaying connections for rooftop solar and lack of a transparent system for investors to identify where connections are available means they often over-submit applications for large-scale projects, leading operators to refuse smaller connections.
These grid challenges were to a significant extent caused by the lack of adequate planning – countries setting extremely low renewables targets that were then used as a basis for not extensive enough grid expansion planning despite the on-the-ground trends and industry forecasts. Ironically, in some cases, such as the Polish TSO’s grid expansion plan, the operator assumed a 50% renewables electricity by 2030 compared to the official government target of 32% set just a year earlier. This inconsistency in energy system planning makes it difficult to realise and finance investments as complex as grids and needs to be addressed on a European and national level – starting with up-to-date and ambitious wind and solar targets in the NECPs, within the TYNDP process and in national grid expansion plans.
Supporting Material
Acknowledgements
Alison Candlin and Reynaldo Dizon, Ember; Rebekka Popp and Genady Kondarev, E3G; Laszlo Szabo, Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research; Matjaž Grmek, Focus Association for Sustainable Development; Mariya Trifonova, Center for the Study of Democracy; Juraj Melichár, Priatelia Zeme-CEPA; Petr Hlobil, Bankwatch; Hans Markus Kalmer; Edgaras Maladauskas, Lithuania Wind Power Association; Jan Krčál, Fakta o Klimatu; Martin Mikeska, Czech Renewable Energy Chamber; Irena Gajewska, Polish Photovoltaics Association; Ján Karaba and Boris Valach, Slovak Association of the Photovoltaic Industry and RES (SAPI).
Photo creditJochen Tack / Alamy Stock Photo
PyPSAPyPSA: T. Brown, J. Hörsch, D. Schlachtberger, PyPSA: Python for Power System Analysis, 2018, Journal of Open Research Software, 6(1), arXiv:1707.09913, DOI:10.5334/jors.188; PyPSA-ENTSO-E: Matteo de Felice, Simulating European power systems using open tools and data, 2023.