
Breadcrumbs
New Generation: Building a clean European electricity system by 2035
Ember modelling of least-cost power system pathways reveals that a clean power system (70-80% wind and solar) by 2035 should be at the core of energy planning for a net-zero continent by mid-century.
Highlights
70-80%
Wind and solar power in 2035
<1%
Coal power in 2030
<5%
Gas power in 2035
About
This study explores the least-cost pathways to a clean power system in Europe, compatible with the Paris Agreement climate goals (1.5C).
Detailed, country-by-country, hour-by-hour power system modelling confirms the feasibility of almost completely decarbonising Europe’s power sector by 2035, while expanding the electricity supply. Key metrics are quantified in order to benchmark progress, while accounting for a range of uncertainties. Crucially, the costs of competing routes are assessed, including the costs of developing the power system according to current plans.
This report summarises the results of three modelled pathways for the European power sector. The Stated Policy pathway is aligned with stated national policies until 2035. The other two pathways – Technology Driven and System Change – are computed to minimise cost while remaining within a carbon budget compatible with the Paris Agreement climate goals. The latter two pathways expand clean electrification, but differ in their assumptions about available technologies and the levels of energy savings resulting from societal change.
The term Europe is used in this study to refer to the collection of countries included in the power system modelling: EU27 + UK + Norway + Switzerland + the Western Balkan six (AL, BA, KX, ME, MK, RS). Turkey and Ukraine are not included.
See our Pathway Explorer
Executive summary
A clean European electricity system by 2035
A clean power system in Europe can be achieved by 2035; at no extra cost above stated plans and without compromising security of supply.
In least-cost pathways, wind and solar scale rapidly this decade to provide the backbone of an expanded power system. This enables higher electrification that could halve Europe’s fossil fuel consumption by 2030.
Upgrading the system and quadrupling growth in wind and solar capacity requires an additional upfront investment of €300-750bn. The avoided fossil fuel consumption would save Europe an estimated €1 trillion by 2035, with multiple benefits to climate, health, and energy security.
Foreword
A new vision for Europe’s electricity generation
Dr Chris Rosslowe, Senior Energy & Climate Data Analyst
There have never been more reasons to end the fossil age in Europe. Continued reliance on fossil fuels endangers the climate, damages public health, and undermines the sovereignty and affordability of Europe’s energy. Transformation of the power sector will be central to building a new energy system that addresses these challenges. Wind and solar provide the key tools to decarbonise power production, and are abundant and cheap. Moreover, electrification can unlock fossil fuel reductions across the economy, meaning an expanded clean power system should be considered the crucial enabler of wider decarbonisation. In this context, this study explores the least-cost pathways to clean power in Europe compatible with the Paris Agreement climate goals (1.5C).
Evidence is growing that power systems in advanced economies can and should be decarbonised in the 2030s. The IEA’s 1.5C-compatible global energy scenario strongly recommends that advanced economies achieve this milestone by 2035. Accordingly, the G7 have committed to a goal of achieving ‘predominantly decarbonised’ electricity sectors by 2035.
The modelled clean power pathways present an optimistic vision for the future power system that will require coordinated action by governments, manufacturers, system operators, and consumers to realise. The results reveal that taking early action could unlock billions in cost savings over the coming decades, in addition to the climate and health benefits of phasing out fossil energy. Achieving a clean power system by 2035 should be at the core of credible plans for a net-zero continent by mid-century. Making this vision a reality will require substantially higher investment in wind and solar power and key flexibility technologies this decade, above and beyond existing plans. Such a mobilistion would cement the EU’s position as a climate leader and boost the European economy. As such, the up-front investments required to build a cleaner and bigger power system could be viewed as a down-payment on the quality of life and prosperity of future Europeans.
Now is the moment for Europe to grab the opportunity for cleaner, cheaper energy.
Summary for Policymakers
Emergent Themes
Main conclusions drawn from the modelled pathways
The composition of the dispatchable fleet may take a variety of forms and still achieve clean power by 2035. The technology choices present different risk profiles, but estimated cost differences are minimal.
New nuclear is found not to be a cost-competitive option in clean power pathways. However, sensitivity analysis reveals that economic cost does not significantly distinguish between pathways using (or not) different clean dispatchable technology options. This includes a scenario in which new nuclear is developed in line with national plans, and a scenario in which CCS technology is not available. Instead of cost, decisions require balancing different risk profiles.
The wind and solar deployment challenge is largely unaffected by choices between dispatchable capacity options, which have greater implications for Europe’s dependency on fossil gas.
None of the alternative pathways explored – from additional nuclear to an absence of CCS technology – significantly change the wind and solar deployment requirements by 2035. This confirms that deploying wind and solar, plus supporting power system infrastructure, is the central challenge for power sector decarbonisation. The composition of the dispatchable fleet has a more notable impact on the consumption of natural gas in the power sector. In 2035, alternative clean power pathways with i) no gas CCS or ii) new nuclear (in line with current plans) see reductions of 13% and 15% in gas consumption respectively.
Supporting Material
Methodology
Power system modelling
The pathways are computed using the Artelys Crystal Super Grid power system modelling platform – a leading tool in European energy system planning. As input, assumptions about the energy sector (outlined above) are converted into hourly electricity demand profiles across entire years, taking into account increasing demand from a variety of new sources. Each type of new demand changes the profile of electricity demand in a unique way, across hours and seasons. While the study is focused on power system evolution (and decarbonisation) by 2035, all pathways were computed in 5-year time intervals between 2020-2050. This ensures investments before 2035 have foresight of possible energy system configurations beyond 2035. Hourly power system modelling was carried out, by which investments in and operation of the power system is optimised, minimising cost, while ensuring security of supply over the year – in line with European system security standards. Three years of actual historic weather data was used to simulate every modelled year, of which an average is typically presented. This ensures that a variety of weather conditions and their impact on wind and solar output are accounted for. The impact of weather (temperature) on demand is also included, particularly important as heating is increasingly electrified and cooling demand grows.
Acknowledgements
Dr Chris Rosslowe, Elisabeth Cremona and Tomos Harrison.
ModellingStudy conducted with the support of Artelys: Christopher Andrey (project director), Luc Humberset (project manager), Sixtine Dunglas and Thomas Ridremont (modelling and analysis). Modelling performed with the Artelys Crystal Super Grid tool.
Peer reviewersWith thanks to expert peer reviewers: Léa Hayez and Andrzej Ceglarz (Renewables Grid Initiative), Jörg Mühlenhoff (CAN Europe), Claire Maraval (ReClaim Finance), Artur Patuleia and Pieter de Pous (E3G), Prof Tom Brown (Technische Universität Berlin), Christian Redl and Alexander Dusolt (Agora Energiewende), Keith Allott and Molly Walsh (European Climate Foundation), Bram Claeys (Regulatory Assistance Project).