
Breadcrumbs
Stepping On The Gas
Analysis by Ember reveals that Poland is planning the biggest fossil gas expansion in Europe and risks locking itself into gas dependency.
Available in: Polski
Highlights
4x
Poland's planned growth in fossil gas by 2030
54 TWh
Poland's planned electricity generation from fossil gas in 2030
About
Poland is planning the biggest fossil gas expansion in Europe, as revealed by Ember’s analysis of Poland’s energy strategy, Polish Energy Policy until 2040 (PEP2040).
In this analysis we consider how feasible it is that Poland’s gas plans will materialise, analysing planned new gas projects and coal-to-gas conversions. We also highlight threats associated with the coal-to-gas switch, underscoring regulatory risks that may lock Poland into gas dependency, leading to a failure to reach net-zero by 2050.
Executive summary
Poland risks locking itself into gas dependency
Senior Electricity Analyst, Ember
With its plans to heavily rely on fossil gas, Poland exposes itself to substantial risks. The cost of generating electricity from gas has quadrupled in the last twelve months, causing huge rises in power prices and highlighting the influence of global events and geopolitics. Poland is also swimming against the tide of climate regulation and targets. Consequently, the risk of being left holding expensive stranded assets is genuine. Rather than committing to volatile imported fossil fuels, Poland should accelerate investment in domestic renewable energy. This is a cheaper and cleaner alternative and provides local regeneration opportunities as Poland transitions away from coal.

Chapter 1
Analysis
Chapter 2
Risks Associated
Poland’s track record with large-scale energy projects (eg see WysokieNapiecie and BusinessInsider), combined with its unrealistic assumptions outlined in PEP2040, make it less feasible that all proposed projects will go ahead. However, as the appetite for gas grows in Poland, the risks increase.
Poland’s plans to expand its electricity-only gas fleet are disappointingly out of step with robust modelling scenarios that show Poland can transition away from fossil fuels and still meet electricity demand. Instrat’s modelling, which is compatible with a 2035 coal exit, shows that the maximum total gas capacity could be just 6 GW (from 2025 to 2030). The analysis also accommodates the role of gas as a transitional fuel, with gas generation peaking in 2025 (30 TWh) and then gradually decreasing until reaching 9 TWh in 2040. Poland’s gas plans far outstrip these moderate gas capacity additions, signaling that gas is being thought of as a long term investment.
Plant-by-plant and policy analysis highlights a stunning lack of future-proofing.This is reflected in the lack of any reference to a gas phase-out or pathway to a fossil-free future, and the absence of details about corresponding requirements for the new projects; e.g. full hydrogen compatibility. Given the lack of evidence on the transition plan for the planned projects, Poland’s track record with fossil fuel phase-out, and likely delays in the investments, we stress that the current trajectory might lock in gas dependency beyond 2050, failing to achieve net-zero.
Conclusion
Poland risks another painful and costly transition
In recent years, discourse about climate action from Poland’s government has been closely linked to improving air quality, which is part of the rationale of moving towards gas since it emits less particulate matter than coal. While we applaud Poland’s desire to reduce air pollution, there is a lack of recognition of air pollution’s close link to greenhouse gas emitting activities, and the importance of tackling both simultaneously. Although CO2 and methane are scentless and not visible, they have an enormous impact on climate change and, therefore, the quality of life and wellbeing of Polish communities. Investing now in wind, solar, storage, and improved infrastructure would address both air quality and climate change concerns, and would also be more forward looking, avoiding the risks outlined above.
By 2023, Poland needs to present an updated version of its National Energy and Climate Plan to the European Commission. In March 2021, the European Commission’s executive vice-president Frans Timmermans said that “Fossil Gas has no viable future”. There is no question that Poland’s starting position is difficult. However, by becoming reliant on gas, Poland risks setting itself up for another painful and costly transition. Changing course towards renewable and clean energy sources now will future-proof Poland’s energy supply and security. And make it less challenging to achieve net-zero by 2050.