The science is clear, coal needs to go

Coal for power generation needs to fall even quicker than overall coal use. Global unabated coal power needs to fall by 87% in the next 9 years, from 10,059 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2021 to 1,153 TWh in 2030 (see graphic below).

Coal power has gone the wrong way since 2019 when it was at 9,618 TWh, which has reduced our carbon budget further. This means that models now allow for only half the coal power in 2030 than previously. Before, the median 1.5°C-compliant coal generation in 2030 was 2,430 TWh – now it is 1,153 TWh.

Unabated coal power needs to be completely phased out by 2040, according to all-but a handful of outlier scenarios.

There is some good news. All 4+ degree scenarios have coal power at least doubling by 2040. Because the recent momentum on coal makes it very unlikely that coal would double within the next two decades. This makes all 4 degrees scenarios highly unlikely, at least on the trajectory for coal power.

However, to reach 1.5°C degrees, and even in most 2 degree scenarios, coal needs to collapse quickly. Almost all 1.5°C no or low overshoot scenarios show coal power collapsing by two thirds or more by 2030. In these scenarios, unabated coal power is mostly phased out by 2040. For 1.5°C high overshoot scenarios and 2 degrees, coal falls less rapidly by 2030, but they still require a near phaseout of coal power by 2040. Coal with carbon capture and storage does not play a role in the power sector in most of the 1.5°C scenarios assessed by the IPCC.

It’s important to note that not just coal power needs to be phased out, unabated gas power also needs to fall drastically (see graphic below). In the median 1.5°C scenario, gas power falls by three-quarters from 6,100 TWh in 2021 to 1,500 TWh in 2040.

There are some scenarios that have near-zero gas by 2040, in line with the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 report, which shows a global net-zero power sector by 2040.

The IPCC scenarios also align well with the IEA’s Net Zero milestone that the power sector should be net-zero emissions by 2035 for OECD countries. In the IPCC median 1.5 degree scenario, OECD coal power in 2035 is zero, and unabated gas power is only 3% of total electricity supply (see graphic below).

The IPCC report shows that wind and solar are the most impactful and cheapest tools in the toolbox. They can help us avert the climate crisis and save money while we do that. The popular IPCC graphic below shows that wind and solar can deliver over 8 gigatonnes a year of emissions savings, over a third of the 24 gigatonnes required for 1.5 degrees in 2030. It also shows that half of the emissions reductions from wind and solar would save money compared to the reference scenario.