Why does 'tripling renewables' mean building at least 1,500 GW per year by 2030?

For the first time, a global deal on renewables is on the table at the UN’s COP climate conference this year, as the presidency proposes a global goal to triple renewables capacity this decade. Already 60 countries are backing this goal, following on from an agreement by G20 countries earlier this year. 

“Triple renewables” means to triple the total renewable capacity the world had already built at the end of 2022 to the end of 2030, so that it reaches around 11,000 GW. This is the amount of renewables capacity the world needs to reach to get back on track to a 1.5C pathway.

Both the IEA and IRENA net zero scenarios are aligned in this definition:

• IRENA WETO: from 3,372 GW in 2022 to 11,174 GW in 2030
• IEA NZE: from 3,629 GW in 2022 to 11,008 GW in 2030

This means the world needs to install roughly 7,000 GW in 7 years. In 2023, annual additions are expected to reach about 500 GW. This puts global renewables capacity at 3,872 GW at the end of 2023, when using the 2022 figure from IRENA.

However, neither the IEA nor IRENA publish a pathway for what needs to happen every year to 2030 – the only clue is that the IEA shows solar and wind annual capacity additions reaching 1,140 GW in 2030. Scaling for the IEA mix, that is equivalent to around 1300 GW per year of renewables annual capacity additions in 2030. However, we believe that number should be higher.

There are two mathematical ways to grow to 11,000 GW by 2030, and both mean that annual additions need to reach more than 1,500 GW by 2030. 

• Growing total capacity: First, you can assume that the 3,872 GW total capacity in 2023 grows by a fixed percentage (16% per year), which would mean annual additions reach 1,526 GW by 2030. 
• Growing annual capacity additions: Second, you can assume that the 500 GW annual additions in 2023 grow by a fixed percentage (17% per year), which would mean annual additions reach 1,580 GW by 2030.