Draft national targets put EU just short of REPowerEU

This updated ambition puts the EU on course for approximately 650 GW solar by 2030, more than triple the 2022 capacity of 195 GW. Wind is set to reach 450 GW, more than double the 2022 capacity of 204 GW. However, these expected totals still fall short of what the European Commission estimates will be required to reach EU energy goals, namely 750 GW solar and 500 GW wind power by 2030.

The EU solar fleet will grow on average 14% per year between 2023 and 2030 according to the reported targets. Among Member States, Germany and Spain have made some of the most striking increases in solar targets, adding a huge 139 GW combined. Several countries with previously very low targets are now planning for a more significant role for solar by 2030, such as Poland, Lithuania and Ireland, who have increased their targets by factors of 4, 6 and 20 respectively. Portugal also foresees strong growth, with the fleet increasing 6-fold compared to 2023. The Netherlands, currently a solar leader, is the only large power producer not to increase its solar capacity target at all compared with 2019 – a target they are only 3 GW (approximately one year of installations) from achieving. Estonia’s target essentially implies no further growth between 2023 and 2030. Greece’s ambition is also lacking for a country of such high potential, with foreseen growth of only 11% year-on-year, below the EU average. This would require average annual installations of 900 MW, while additions in 2023 were already nearly double this (1.7 GW). Other countries already nearing their 2030 targets are Croatia, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Sweden, all of which could realistically aim higher.

Several countries have significantly increased wind power ambition, including Bulgaria, Estonia, Denmark, Lithuania, and Sweden, who have all approximately doubled (or more) their targets set in 2019. France, however, has not increased its wind capacity target in this five year period. Several countries where wind growth has been stagnant have set targets that signal a return to activity, such as Latvia, Romania, Czechia, Bulgaria, and Portugal. Europe’s largest wind power producers, Germany and Spain, will need to increase average annual deployment between 4-5 times to reach their ambitious targets. In contrast, despite strong recent growth, Finland and Sweden are the only significant wind power producers where annual deployment would slow in coming years. This is particularly dramatic in Finland, where the 2030 target of 7.2 GW has almost already been achieved in 2023 (6.9 GW). This ambition is unrealistically low given the pipeline of existing projects, even considering the number is based on a scenario with existing measures only.