Breadcrumbs
Solar power continues to surge in 2024
Analysis of national monthly data for solar capacity additions shows that the world will - once again - beat forecasts, even though expectations are higher than ever
Although growth of 6% per year sounds small, the absolute additions this will require will be substantial. Sustaining this pace of additions will require concerted efforts to reduce barriers to solar integration, and to enable the growth of solar power in new markets.
Countries that have already seen rapid levels of solar growth need to make sure they are planning for power systems with high levels of solar capacity. There is already twice the manufacturing capacity available today than is being used. The constraint for future market growth is unlikely to come from solar panel prices. The key will be to ensure that countries have sufficient grid capacity to transport power to where it is needed, as well as develop battery storage capacity to complement solar outside of the sunniest hours. If these actions are taken, solar power could easily continue to surpass expectations throughout the rest of the decade.
Supporting Material
Methodology
Global solar installations are estimated using available national data where possible, as well as an analysis of Chinese solar PV export data to the remaining countries.
Countries with available national data
Monthly solar capacity data is collected from 15 countries or regions, representing an estimated 80% of capacity additions in 2023. These countries include: Australia, Argentina, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Italy, Poland, Portugal, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Data was collected from the following national sources:
- Argentina: Compañia Administradora Del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico (CAMMESA)
- Australia: Australian Photovoltaic Institute (APVI)
- Brazil: Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS), Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (Aneel)
- China: China Electricity Council (CEC), National Energy Administration (NEA)
- Germany: Bundesnetzagentur (as reported by Energy-Charts)
- India: National Power Portal (NPP)
- Italy: Terna
- Poland: Agencja Rynku Energii (ARE), Urzędu Regulacji Energetyki (URE) (as reported by instrat)
- Portugal: Redes Energéticas Nacionais (REN)
- South Africa: Eskom
- South Korea: Electric Power Statistics Information System (EPSIS)
- Taiwan: ESIST
- Türkiye: TEİAŞ
- United Kingdom: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ)
- United States: Energy Information Agency (EIA)
Data availability extended to July 2024 for most countries, with the exceptions of Australia, Poland, and the United States, where data was only available up to June 2024 at the time of writing.
Conversion to GW(DC)
Sources vary as to whether they report installed solar capacity in DC or AC. Additionally, the conversion between the two can vary for individual installations. This introduces some uncertainty common to all solar capacity estimates. For the purpose of this forecast, the following countries reporting GW(AC) were standardised to GW(DC) using a factor of 1.3. Brazil, India, Portugal, South Africa, South Korea, the United States, and Türkiye. For China, a lower conversion factor of 1.2 was used.
Estimation of remaining 2024 capacity deployment
To estimate the rate of solar deployment for the remaining months of 2024, the deployment in the available months of 2024 was compared to the same months in 2023. It was assumed that these year-on-year trends would continue for the rest of the year.
Countries without national data
For countries where national solar deployment data was not available, estimates were derived from Ember’s China Solar PV export data. Given the uncertainty surrounding the timing of installations relative to exports, a six-month lag was applied to reported exports. Additionally, the data was smoothed using a three-month centred moving average.
The midpoint estimate assumes that 85% of exported capacity results in installations, leading to an estimated 115 GW of solar capacity. Low and high estimates assume installation rates of 60% and 110%, respectively, resulting in a plausible range of 81-149 GW. The high estimate accounts for the possibility that panels stockpiled in 2023 may be installed in 2024, increasing total installations beyond the exports assumed for 2024.
Ember’s analysis of the latest data on monthly capacity installations shows that the world is on track to reach 593 GW of solar installations by the end of this year. This would once again surpass most industry forecasts, and comes after 2023 showed record growth in solar installations of 86% compared to 2022. Countries need to plan ahead to make the most of the high levels of solar capacity being built today and ensure the continued build-out of capacity in the coming years.