‘Spare’ solar manufacturing capacity could help the world exceed the global tripling renewable energy target by 21%

  • London

  • 12 June 2024

 A new report from energy think tank Ember highlights that deploying currently underutilised solar manufacturing capacity, predominantly in China, in principle, could help the world exceed the global renewables tripling target by 2030 and contribute to improving electricity access in the Global South.

The report highlights the significant gap between the potential output of the world’s existing solar panel factories, and projected solar power deployment through 2030. This gap creates a ‘spare’ solar capacity of 3.8 terawatts (TW), which could be manufactured but will not be deployed under current plans. (For comparison, this capacity is more than three times the total power generation capacity of the US.) 

Deploying panels from that ‘spare’ manufacturing capacity could drive the world well beyond the goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030, agreed at the UN COP28 climate change conference. Currently, the world is falling short of the goal, with projected deployments set not to meet the 11,000 gigawatts (GW) target. However, utilising all the ‘spare’ solar capacity would help the world reach the target a year ahead of schedule and exceed it by 21% by the end of 2030, contributing to delivery of the Paris Agreement climate goals.

Supporting global deployment of these solar panels would create a triple-win scenario for South-South-North collaboration. For China, it offers economic and diplomatic benefits. Economically, it would keep factories operational and safeguard jobs and investment during periods of low domestic demand. Diplomatically, it strengthens China’s leadership in renewable energy and enhances its ties with developing nations, many of which are members of the G77/China group. 

Fifteen years ago, China built its world-leading solar manufacturing industry by investing in the domestic market. The current opportunity lies in investing in markets overseas, ensuring that factories stay open during this difficult period while also helping developing countries with their own clean energy transitions. The diplomatic and economic stars are aligned.

Dr Muyi Yang Senior Electricity Policy Analyst, China

Supporting deployment in the Global South could contribute to improving energy access, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where more than half the population lacks even basic access to electricity. In principle, deploying just one-seventh of the ‘spare’ capacity could generate enough electricity to bring basic access to 809 million people in the world’s poorest and most climate-vulnerable nations, thereby advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

For the Global North, supporting rollout would help fulfil responsibilities to support developing countries in achieving their energy transition and delivery of the SDGs. Accelerating solar rollout across the Global South would reduce the proportion of electricity that countries generate using fossil fuels. Additionally, growing energy independence will provide a buffer against supply shocks and price spikes.

The existence of so much ‘spare’ solar manufacturing capacity offers an opportunity to accelerate global decarbonisation while improving energy access in the developing world. The supply chain is clearly in good health - the issue lies in deploying what it can supply. It’s one of those rare times when there’s a win for just about everyone, and not taking advantage of it would go down as a real failure of imagination.

Richard Black Director of Policy and Strategy

Notes to editors

Media enquiries

Shiyao Zhang

Communications Officer Asia

About Ember

Ember is an independent energy think tank that aims to accelerate the clean energy transition with data and policy. It creates targeted data insights to advance policies that urgently shift the world to a clean, electrified energy future.