Global power sector emissions plateau as wind and solar continue to grow

A report published today by energy think tank Ember reveals that global power sector emissions plateaued in the first half of 2023, with a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year, as wind and solar continue to grow. However, adverse hydro conditions–likely exacerbated by climate change–prevented emissions from falling.

The report analyses electricity data from January to June 2023, compared to the same period last year, across 78 countries representing 92% of global electricity demand.

Wind and solar were the only two electricity sources that significantly increased their share of global electricity, together providing 14.3% of global electricity in the first half of 2023, compared to 12.8% in the same period last year. Solar in particular is growing rapidly (+16%, +104 TWh), with 50 countries setting new monthly records for solar generation in the first half of 2023. China continues to be the leader in solar generation providing 43% of global growth in solar generation, while the EU, US and India accounted for about 12% each. 

Despite this growth in solar and wind, adverse hydro conditions prevented emissions from falling. The first half of the year saw a historic fall in hydro generation (-8.5%, -177 TWh) due to droughts, with China accounting for three-quarters of this. As a result, fossil generation increased slightly to meet the deficit created by hydro. Power sector emissions would have fallen by 2.9% had global hydro generation been at the same level as last year.

Amid these hydro issues, low electricity demand growth helped to suppress emissions growth. Global electricity demand rose only 0.4% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, which is much lower than the 10-year historic average (+2.6%). Falls in demand in some major economies led to significant declines in coal power, most notably in the EU (-23%). As a result, emissions fell in the EU (-17%), Japan (-12%), the US (-8.6%) and South Korea (-3%). Moderate demand growth in India led to slow growth in coal generation, which slowed down the country’s emissions rise to 3.1% in the first half of 2023 compared to 11% in the same period last year.