The G7 should set a goal to triple their renewable capacity

A global tripling does not mean that every country is required to triple its renewables capacity–some will do more, some less–but evidence shows that G7 countries in aggregate would require a tripling. A recent Climate Analytics report assessed 1.5C compliant IPCC scenarios that give a regional breakdown of renewables build. Climate Analytics showed the median of these was a 3.4X rise in renewables capacity from 2022 to 2030, slightly more than the tripling agreed at COP28. Some regions are starting from a low baseline and need to far more than triple, for example the Middle East and North Africa need to increase 11.8X from 2022. The OECD region, which we assume as a proxy for the G7, increases its renewable capacity by 3.1 times. Therefore, a tripling of global renewable capacity means a tripling of G7 renewable capacity.

Currently, the G7 are collectively only targeting a doubling, leaving a gap of 0.7 TW to tripling. According to Ember’s 2030 Global Renewable Target Tracker, the collective sum of the G7 members’ 2030 renewable capacity targets is 2 TW. This is just over a doubling (2.2X) of 2022 capacity (0.9 TW). A tripling of renewable capacity is 2.7 TW, leaving a 0.7 TW gap between current targets and a tripling aligned goal. 

Germany, the UK, and Italy, this year’s host of the G7, are leading the way with 2030 targets that are more than a doubling of 2022 capacity.  However, France and Japan are lagging behind their G7 partners with targets well below a tripling. The US and Canada do not have explicit targets, and the 2030 targets used here are extracted from official modelling studies and classified as implicit targets in the Ember 2030 Global Renewable Target Tracker. Enacting official national targets for 2030 would provide certainty about the level of ambition in the US and Canada, and signal their intention to contribute to the global tripling goal. 

All G7 countries have begun to install wind and solar at scale. Germany and the UK lead the way with wind and solar at 58% and 42% of total capacity, respectively. Canada is the lowest at 14%, followed by the United States (21%), Japan (27%) and Italy (29%).