A year of two halves?
Ember's analysis reveals a bounceback in global coal power after unprecedented declines in the first half of the year.
About
We analysed global coal generation throughout 2020. Our analysis is based on countries responsible for >92% of global coal generation. We look at all countries responsible for >1% of global coal generation with available generation data, and treat the EU-27 as a single region.
Executive summary
2020 looks set to be a year of two halves
We saw unprecedented declines in coal power in the first two quarters, but coal generation bounced back in Q3 and continues to recover into Q4.
In spite of the unprecedented impact of Covid-19 globally, we project coal generation to fall by 5% in 2020.
This falls short of the progress needed to stay below 2 degrees of warming, and if continued could put 1.5 degrees out of reach.
Key findings
Coal generation trends in 2020
Conclusion
Where do we need to be
In their latest World Energy Outlook, the IEA present a range of scenarios designed to indicate where the power sector needs to be headed. The lower ambition Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) mandates falls in coal generation of 5.3% per year until 2030, to be on track for a 66% chance of holding global temperature rises below 1.85 degrees. But more importantly, their new NZE2050 scenario, shown below, would require falls in coal generation of around 12% each year, with all subcritical coal being phased out before 2030.
The projected fall of 5% this year does not reach either of these targets, and highlights the importance of ensuring that any net zero pledges are accompanied by real change in the short-term.
