
Breadcrumbs
EU Electricity Analysis H1-2020
Renewables beat fossil fuels: A half-yearly analysis of Europe's electricity transition
About
For the last seven years, Ember has published an annual report into the European power sector. This mid-year analysis aggregates electricity grid data from ENTSO-E. We then curate the data to make a robust analysis of Europe’s electricity system. The data and further details on the methodology is available here.
Executive summary
Renewables beat fossil fuels
Senior electricity analyst, Ember
This marks a symbolic moment in the transition of Europe’s electricity sector. Renewables generated more electricity than fossil fuels, driven by wind and solar replacing coal. That’s fast progress from just nine years ago when fossil fuels generated twice as much as renewables. But the change is not equal: Poland is now Europe’s biggest coal generator and Czechia is the third largest. For countries like Poland and Czechia there is now a clear way out, should they choose to take it. Europe’s Next Generation recovery deal can help countries fast-track their coal to clean transition by using stimulus spending to immediately step up wind and solar investment, and an expanded Just Transition Fund to move away from coal.

Renewables
Renewables beat fossil fuels
Renewable electricity generation exceeded fossil fuel generation, for the first time ever.
Poland's coal
Poland out on a limb
Poland now generates more coal-fired electricity than Germany.
Poland’s electricity transition is starting. Poland is stepping up its renewable electricity generation, with solar capacity increasing by 900MW last year and plans for up to 10GW of offshore wind by 2035. And coal is hurting: the hard coal mines are struggling to compete against cheaper international coal, and the coal power plants are struggling as carbon prices break €30 per tonne.
But with numerous pots of money available to speed-up the transition, including €40 billion in the newly-expanded Just Transition Fund alone, the coal-to-clean transition can become less of a threat and more of an opportunity.
Wind and solar
Wind and solar prove themselves
Wind and solar alone reached a record of 21% of Europe’s total electricity generation.
COVID-19 will slow down new wind and solar installations this year. Solar installations will be lower in Europe in 2020, and wind installations in 2020 are likely to be around 30% lower than forecast. However, wind and solar installations will need to double or triple in the 2020s compared to last decade, to be on target for 55% emissions reductions by 2030, according to recent modelling by Climact.
Conclusion
Europe’s coal-to-clean transition is happening quicker than expected
On one hand COVID-19 has slowed new wind and solar installations this year, but on the other hand it has shown us that our electricity grids can cope with record shares of wind and solar on the electricity grid, although some inflexibilities have been exposed. Renewables have proved more resilient than fossil fuels in the face of this crisis.
As we move into a period of uncertain economic growth, robust carbon prices and continued renewables expansion it is plain to see that fossil fuels no longer make any economic sense. Now that the European Union has set up funds for a just transition and modernisation for Europe’s coal regions, and is agreeing a COVID-19 stimulus package, it’s now time for all countries to step up their ambition to cut power sector emissions over the coming decade and complete Europe’s transition from coal to clean electricity.
Supporting Material
Methodology
Bioenergy
For the purposes of this report, we classify renewables in line with the IPCC (i.e. including bioenergy), however, there is considerable concern that certain uses of bioenergy (in particular the use of forest biomass to replace coal in power stations) will not deliver the same climate benefits as compared to fossil fuels over climate relevant timescales as other forms of renewable energy generation (such as wind and solar). For more information please see Ember’s reports: The Burning Issue (June 2020) and Playing with Fire (December 2019). Given that wind and solar and hydro alone generated more electricity than fossil fuels, removing bioenergy from ‘renewables’ figures would not impact the conclusion that renewables generated more electricity than fossil fuels in the EU-27 in the first half of 2020.
Acknowledgements
Wilf Lytton