Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55

The EU’s renewable energy share under different scenarios was calculated based on the methodology set out in Article 7 of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II). The Fit-for-55 scenario data was sourced from the policy scenarios produced for the impact assessment of the European Green Deal policy package. The MIX scenario was selected as this appears to be most closely aligned to the energy and climate targets of the Fit-for-55 package (-55% greenhouse gas emissions). The impact of selected technology trends on the renewable energy target was calculated by adding/removing energy from the numerator and denominator of the Fit-for-55 scenario.

• All values for solar capacity are in AC – a factor of 1.25 is used for conversion to DC
• 2030 figures for wind were extrapolated from Wind Europe’s 2023 market outlook and the IEA’s 2022 renewables outlook.
• 2030 figures for EVs (BEVs and PHEVs) were based on T&E and Consultancy which estimate 40 million, EY/Eurelectric which estimate 65 million and LCPDelta which estimate 84 million. The T&E calculation is based on the total number of sales currently forecasted in LMC Automotive’s Global Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Forecast (Q2 2022 update with commercial vehicles excluded).

The full scenario data for REPowerEU was not published at the time of writing. For the purposes of this briefing, it was constructed using data reported in three sources – REPowerEU Plan and two non-papers on complementary modelling of higher energy efficiency and renewable energy targets – as described below.

• Final energy consumption is reported to be 751 Mtoe (8,734 TWh). The equivalent figure for Fit-for-55 of 787 Mtoe (9,093 TWh) is the same as that reported in the MIX scenario, and is noted to exclude international aviation. As the renewable energy share is calculated on gross final consumption of energy including aviation (with adjustments), assumptions had to be made to complete the figure. As REPowerEU does not mention expected changes in aviation (apart from the integration of sustainable fuels), consumption of international aviation is assumed to be the same as in the Fit-for-55 scenario (465 TWh). The aviation adjustment is calculated using the ratio between total energy including aviation and total energy after aviation adjustment as reported in the SHARES tool for 2021, resulting in 9,195 TWh.
• Final consumption of energy from renewable sources is reported as 45%, resulting in 4,138 TWh.

• Net electricity generation reported as 3,450,049 GWh. This was converted to gross electricity generation assuming self-consumption levels of approximately 4%, the EU average for the previous 5 years, resulting in 3,588,051 GWh.
• The reported shares of renewables in gross electricity generation were converted to GWh. Total RES 72% (2,583 TWh), hydro 10.5% (376 TWh), wind 37% (1,328 TWh). Solar share was reported with other renewables; solar generation was therefore calculated based on the solar capacity reported, using the same capacity factor assumed in the MIX scenario. The remaining portion of renewable energy was allocated to the category “other renewables”.

It should be noted that the share of renewables in gross electricity generation (72%) is not the same as the share in gross final consumption of electricity (69%). The latter excludes renewable electricity used in transport and green hydrogen production.

• Nuclear generation is reported to be 45 TWh higher than in the Fit-for-55 (515 TWh), resulting in a total of 560 TWh.
• Coal generation is reported to be 105 TWh higher than in the Fit-for-55 (139 TWh), resulting in a total of 244 TWh. 
• Hydrogen generation in power was calculated to be 0.255 TWh, based on the 0.105 Mt reported for the power sector and assuming combustion in a CCGT engine with 60% efficiency. 
• Gas generation could not be calculated from the source documents as qualitative descriptions resulted in varied values. It was therefore calculated as the remaining gross electricity generation once all other sources are accounted for. Generation from “other fossil” was assumed to be the same as that in the Fit-for-55 scenario (8 TWh). This resulted in 192 TWh.

• Final energy consumption for heating and cooling was calculated as the remaining energy once final energy consumption in electricity and transport were accounted for (3,453 TWh). 
• Renewable energy share in heating and cooling reported as 47%, resulting in 1623 TWh.

• Total energy in transport was reported to be 221 Mtoe (or 220 Mtoe), resulting in 2,570 TWh.
• Renewable energy in transport was calculated as the remaining renewable energy once that in heating and cooling, and electricity was accounted for, resulting in 644 TWh.

• Generation figures from the Fit-for-55 scenario were maintained for hydro, other renewables, other fossil fuels, and nuclear. Generation from coal was kept at Fit-for-55 levels, unless otherwise stated in the briefing. Power generation from hydrogen was assumed to be the same as that under REPowerEU (255 GWh). 
• Wind and solar generation was calculated based on forecasted capacity figures, using the same capacity factor as that assumed in the Fit-for-55 modelling. 
• Gas generation is calculated as the remaining electricity once all other sources are accounted for.
• Gross power generation is calculated based on the Fit-for-55 figure, plus the additional electricity demand for green hydrogen production, increased stock of heat pumps and larger EV fleet. Transmission losses for electricity consumption by electrolysers are not factored in as these are assumed to be negligible, with the majority of planned electrolysers in the EU expected to be off-grid installations. Final electricity demand for heating and transport is converted into gross electricity generation (which includes transmission losses and self-consumption) using the Fit-for-55 ratio of gross electricity generation to final electricity consumption (1=0.88).

• Given the focus of the briefing on heat pumps, renewable heating was split into “ambient heat” and “all other RES-H&C”. The former increased, based on the assumed number of heat pumps installed in 2030. 
• The ambient heat provided by the stock of heat pumps was estimated based on a strong linear relationship between historical stock figures and ambient heat reported in the SHARES tool since 2005. This constitutes a conservative approach to calculating ambient heat contribution as it does not take into account the improved average efficiency (COP) of the heat pump stock which can be expected by 2030. The additional ambient heat is added to the Fit-for-55 renewable energy consumption and the total energy consumption for heating and cooling (both the numerator and denominator).
• The electricity demand of the heat pump stock is calculated assuming a COP of 3.06, the current stock average reported in a 2022 JRC report. This is not included in the final energy consumption for heating and cooling as it accounted for under power generation.  
• Heat provided by heat pumps is assumed to offset that from fossil fuel consumption. The latter is calculated based on the estimated useful heat demand met by heat pumps and assuming an EU average conversion efficiency of heating of 88.5%. The resulting figure is removed from the Fit-for-55 total energy consumption for heating and cooling. 
• An additional 11.9 Mt of green hydrogen is assumed to be consumed in industry, thus falling under RES-H&C. This is converted to energy terms using the conversion factor provided in the REPowerEU plan (1 ktoe = 2.87 kT H2). For simplicity, it is assumed that the average conversion efficiencies in industry for hydrogen and fossil fuels are the same. Increased hydrogen consumption therefore does not change the total energy consumption for heating and cooling, but adds to the renewable energy consumption (numerator change only).
• Renewable cooling, although covered by EU legislation on renewables since entry into force of RED II, is not included in this briefing for simplicity and due to uncertainties in member state accounting methodologies (renewable cooling has been reported for the first time in SHARES 2021).

• Total electricity in road was calculated based on the number of EVs, their assumed annual mileage and average electricity consumption per kilometre. 
• 14,700 kilometres per year is assumed for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The share of electric kilometres for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is assumed to be around 42%, or 6,125 kilometres per year.  
• The average electricity consumption per kilometre was calculated as the weighted average of energy consumption per vehicle type of small, medium and large passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles. Consumption figures per vehicle type were sourced from the technology assumptions used in the Fit-for-55 modelling. The resulting figure of 0.16 Kwh/km was crossed checked with that estimated based on the Fit-for-55 scenario and found to be consistent.
• The average consumption of EVs in the Fit-for-55 scenario was estimated by dividing the electricity in road (reported as a percentage of road transport consumption in the Fit-for-55 modelling) by estimated total kilometres of EVs in 2030. The latter was calculated assuming a stock of 30 million EVs in 2030, split between BEV and PHEV based on the distribution of the 2021 stock, and the annual average mileage described above. The resulting figure was 0.17 kWh/km. It is noted that the ratio between BEV and PHEV may be different in 2030, with the former prioritised due to its lower lifecycle emissions.