At 581 gCO2 per kWh, the carbon intensity of China’s electricity generation is significantly above the global average of 480 gCO2/kWh.

China’s electricity demand has grown rapidly over the last decade while population growth has stalled. At 6.6 MWh in 2023, China’s per capita demand was nearly twice the world average (3.7 MWh) and that of Asia (3.5 MWh).

China’s per capita emissions from electricity generation (3.9 tCO2) were more than twice the world average of 1.8 tCO2. 

Electricity provided 28% of China’s final energy consumption in 2022, compared to the world average of 21%. China is ahead of the curve in electrification of its wider economy, deploying key technologies such as EVs and heat pumps faster than any other country. This added almost 120 TWh to its electricity demand in 2023, compared to less than 90 TWh in the rest of the world combined.

China’s electricity demand continued to grow in 2023, increasing by 6.9% (+606 TWh) compared to the previous year. This was higher than the average annual demand growth of 5.9% between 2013 and 2022 and well above the low demand growth in 2022 of 3.7% (+314 TWh).

Wind (+123 TWh, +16%) and solar (+156 TWh, +37%) met 46% of the demand increase. They continued to be the sources with the fastest relative growth in generation. China made up 51% of global growth in solar and 60% of global growth in wind in 2023.

Coal generation (+319 TWh, +5.9%) met most of the remaining increase (53%). Poor hydro conditions meant that hydro generation fell 59 TWh (-4.5%), resulting in greater use of fossil fuels. China’s increase in coal generation was more than twice the global increase of 146 TWh.

With coal generation increasing in 2023, China’s power sector emissions rose by 5.9% (+307 MtCO2) – six times higher than the global average of 1%. Between 2016 and 2022, average annual emissions growth in China was at 4.2%.

The 2023 emissions growth comes after a near plateau in 2022, with an increase of just 1.4% that year. This was due to lower demand growth in 2022 (+314 TWh) caused by the ongoing impact of China’s ‘zero-Covid’ policy. Furthermore, wind and solar met two-thirds of China’s electricity demand increase in 2022, compared to 46% in 2023, resulting in a reduced need for additional coal generation.

March to July saw large falls in hydro generation in China as droughts led to low reservoir levels and lower output. Consequently, coal generation increased most during this period. In the second half of the year, hydro rebounded slightly, although some of this rebound can be explained by low generation during the same months in 2022, when droughts had already started to impact hydro generation. 

Solar and wind grew consistently throughout the year. The largest increase was recorded in November. Solar generation grew by 20 TWh compared to November 2022 – equivalent to more than the annual solar generation of the Netherlands.

Alongside sustained strong growth in electricity demand, China’s power sector emissions have also increased substantially over the last two decades. Rapid economic growth meant that electricity demand was more than seven times higher in 2023 (9,441 TWh) than in 2000 (1,347 TWh). 

Over the same period, coal generation increased by more than five times from 1,060 TWh to 5,716 TWh to meet more than half of the increase in demand. This resulted in emissions rising from 1,062 MtCO2 in 2000 to 5,491 MtCO2 in 2023.

However, emissions increases have slowed down in recent years. While emissions grew an average of 9% annually between 2001 and 2015, this rate has dropped to 4.4% annually between 2016 and 2023. Generation from clean sources has increased more than 13 times since 2000 to 3,353 TWh in 2023 with particularly strong growth in wind and solar in recent years. In fact, had wind and solar generation not increased since 2015, and demand had instead been met by coal, emissions would have been 20% higher in 2023.

In 2000, China produced 18% (242 TWh) of its electricity from clean sources. The share has doubled since then, reaching 35% in 2023. Most of the growth in the share of clean sources happened in recent years. The rapid addition of wind and solar, as well as additions of nuclear power, increased the share of clean electricity by nine percentage points since 2015.

Wind and solar power grew from just 3.9% of generation in 2015 to reach 15.6% in 2023. This meant that wind and solar combined produced more of China’s electricity than hydro for the first time.

As a result of the higher share of clean generation in the mix, the carbon intensity of China’s electricity declined from 783 gCO2/kWh in 2000 to 581 gCO2/kWh.

Despite significant additions of wind and solar generation, clean electricity growth is not yet displacing fossil fuels, but simply meeting part of new electricity demand. With the exception of 2015, when electricity demand growth was exceptionally low, China has not yet seen clean generation growth surpass demand growth in a single year.

Strong wind and solar additions in recent years have brought the country closer to a power sector emissions peak. But the fall in output from other clean generation, plus strong demand growth, prevented this from happening in 2023. This fall was principally due to the poor performance from hydro power as a result of droughts, despite significant hydro capacity additions. Additionally, growth of clean sources other than wind and solar in 2021 and 2022 was at the lowest level in a decade.

Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, trends in China’s electricity mix have been similar to global trends. At the same time, due to its size, China’s power sector is shaping world trends.

China’s wind share grew from 3.2% in 2015 to 9.4% in 2023, compared to a global increase from 3.5% to 7.8%. Similarly, its solar share increased from 0.7% in 2015 to 6.2%, against a global change from 1.1% to 5.5%.

China’s share of hydro declined faster than the global trend over the period. At the same time, China is one of the few countries showing growth in nuclear share – up from 3% to 4.6%. Globally, nuclear generation has fallen from 11% of the mix to 9%. 

China’s fossil generation fell from 73% in 2015 to 65% in 2023, while globally, it declined from 66% to 61% over the same period.

According to the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario, China’s power sector emissions and those of other emerging economies would have to reach zero by 2045. This requires a rapid reversal from the current trend of rising emissions. 

However, due to the speed and scale of China’s buildup of clean sources, particularly wind and solar, the country may have already reached a peak in power sector emissions in 2023 or will reach this milestone in 2024 or 2025. China’s strong growth in solar and wind power deployment in the last months of 2023 as well as an expected recovery in hydro generation led the IEA to forecast a 3% fall in coal generation in China in 2024. This is a substantial change from a year before, when the IEA forecast a rise in 2024.

In 2023, China was responsible for 39% of global power sector emissions. Peaking and declining power sector emissions in China will contribute significantly to global progress towards net zero.

Electricity generation in the US is less carbon-intensive (369 gCO2/kWh) than the global average (480 gCO2/kWh) due to a lower reliance on coal.

However, per capita power sector emissions are nearly three times higher than the global average (4.7 tCO2 vs. 1.8 tCO2). This is because the US has a high per capita power demand of 12.7 MWh, which is more than three times the global average of 3.7 MWh.

Electricity provided 21% of final energy consumption in the US in 2021, the same as the world average of 21%. This is expected to increase as sectors like transport and industry electrify.

In 2023, US electricity demand decreased by 1.4% (-59 TWh), while global demand increased by 2.2%. Demand in the US has grown, at an average rate of 0.6% between 2013 and 2022. The drop in 2023 was largely caused by a 3.6% fall in demand from the residential sector (Ember calculation from US electricity sales), mostly due to rising utility prices, inflation and a relatively mild winter. 

Coal generation saw a steep fall of 19% (-156 TWh) in 2023 as coal power plants in the US continued to close. Accordingly, the share of coal (16%) was down three percentage points in the US electricity mix compared to 2022 (19%). In line with the trend of gas replacing coal generation in the US, gas experienced the largest absolute increase out of all generation sources in 2023, rising by 6.8% (+115 TWh).

US gas growth prevented a global fall in gas generation in 2023. Excluding the US, the rest of the world recorded a 62 TWh fall in gas generation in 2023, whereas the US increased by almost twice that amount (+115 TWh).

US solar generation grew 33 TWh (+16%) in 2023, the second largest absolute increase of any country, behind only China. The US contributed 11% of global growth in solar. Wind generation fell by 2.1% (-9.1 TWh) due to poor wind conditions, but growing capacity installations in 2023 and onwards suggest growth in 2024.

In 2023, emissions from the US power sector dropped by 5.1% (-85 MtCO2) compared to 2022, similar to the decline seen in Japan (-7.3%) but slower than the EU (-19%). This reduction was the result of a steep decline in coal generation, an increase in solar generation and lower overall power demand. This was in contrast to the emissions increases of 1% globally and a fall of 7.6% in the G7.

In 2023, the US recorded the 7th annual fall in power sector emissions in the last 10 years. The drop in emissions in 2023 was twice its average annual emissions decrease (-2%) for the ten years between 2013 and 2022.

US coal generation declined most compared to 2022 during the first half of the year where it was largely replaced by additional gas generation. The first half of the year also saw falls in hydro generation in most months due to drought conditions. 

Solar generation saw consistent year-on-year increases throughout the year with additions strongest during the US summer. Poor wind conditions meant monthly wind generation remained below 2022 levels for most of the year. The largest drop in wind generation was recorded in May (-9.9 TWh).

US power sector emissions have been falling since reaching their peak in 2007. In 2023, emissions were 1,570 MtCO2, about 33% lower than the peak level of 2,331 MtCO2. The reduction in US power sector emissions since 2007 was driven by growth in wind and solar, as well as gas replacing coal. The fall in emissions has been achieved despite the increase in electricity demand. In 2023, power demand stood at 4,270 TWh, about 11% higher than in 2000.

Until 2015, coal was the main source of electricity in the US. However, as coal generation became less economically viable and more tightly regulated, increasing numbers of coal power plants were retired throughout the 2010s. 

Most of the retired plants’ output was replaced with gas, along with growing amounts of wind and solar. By 2015, gas had overtaken coal as the largest source of electricity in the US. In fact, 69% of the fall in coal generation since 2015 was met by an increase in gas. The increase in gas generation in the US over that period contributed 43% to the total global gas growth. 

Among clean power sources, wind has shown the highest growth since 2000, followed by solar. Wind generation grew from 5.6 TWh in 2000 to 425 TWh in 2023. Meanwhile, solar generation hit a record high of 238 TWh in 2023, up from 0.5 TWh in 2000.

Since 2000, the share of clean generation in the US electricity mix has increased significantly. In 2000, wind and solar accounted for only 0.2% of the country’s power generation, yet by 2023 they had reached 16%. 

The emissions intensity of the US power sector fell significantly to 369 gCO2/kWh in 2023, a 35% decline from 2000 levels (571 gCO2/kWh). This was due to a number of factors, with increased solar and wind deployment and the reduction of coal generation being the major contributors.

In 2023, US fossil generation fell as a result of falling electricity demand. The increase in solar output further reduced the need for fossil generation, but the fall could have been even larger if other clean generation – mainly hydro and wind – had not decreased. In fact, every year since 2018 has seen falls in clean generation other than wind and solar, which was largely driven by falls in hydro power due to ongoing droughts. 

Additionally, 2016 was the last year with increasing electricity demand that simultaneously saw a fall in fossil generation. With electricity demand expected to increase due to the electrification of transport and industry, accelerating the deployment of wind and solar, as well as avoiding further falls in other clean generation, is key to reducing fossil generation and emissions.

The electricity mix in the US has become cleaner since the Paris Agreement in 2015. The share of fossil fuels in the electricity mix dropped by eight percentage points, from 67% in 2015 to 59% in 2023. 

Over the same timeframe, wind and solar grew by ten percentage points in the US, from 5.6% in 2015 to 15.6% in 2023, which is faster than the global change over the same period. Globally, wind and solar grew from 4.5% in 2015 to 13.3% in 2023 (+8.8 percentage points). Shares from other clean sources decreased, with hydro and nuclear dropping by 0.5 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively.

According to the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario, power sector emissions in the US and other advanced economies need to reach zero in 2035. 

Since 2015, emissions have been falling by an average of 50 MtCO2 every year. To align with the IEA NZE scenario, this would have to accelerate to a fall of 139 MtCO2 annually from 2024 onwards.

India’s electricity generation is more carbon-intensive (713 gCO2 per kWh) than the global average (480 gCO2/kWh), with coal accounting for three-quarters of generation in 2023.

However, India’s per capita emissions from the power sector are just over half the global average (1.0 tCO2 vs. 1.8 tCO2) and even further below the average in Asia (2.1 tCO2). They are also the fourth lowest in the G20. 

This is because India’s per capita power demand (1.4 MWh) is significantly below the global average (3.7 MWh) and less than half of the average in Asia (3.5 MWh).

Electricity provided 16% of India’s final energy consumption in 2022, significantly below the world average of 21%. This is expected to increase as India’s economy electrifies.

India’s power demand increased by 5.4% (99 TWh) in 2023 compared to the previous year – more than twice as fast as the global increase (+2.2%). This was in line with the country’s average annual demand growth rate for the last decade (+5.4%) and lower than in 2022, when it rose significantly (+8.3%) as the economy rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Wind and solar generation increased by a combined 30 TWh. This met 30% of India’s demand increase. India reported the third largest increase in wind and solar globally behind China and Brazil. Solar generation alone grew 18 TWh, providing 5.9% of global solar growth in 2023. Consequently, India overtook Japan to become the third-largest solar power generator in 2023.

Coal generation saw the largest absolute increase among India’s generation sources (+7.3%, +100 TWh). India also saw the second-highest increase in coal generation globally, behind China, and was among just four countries with an increase greater than 10 TWh. 26% of the rise in coal generation in India was caused by the 26 TWh deficit in hydropower generation due to droughts. As a result, the share of coal in India’s power generation rose one percentage point from 2022 to 75% in 2023.

Due to the increased generation from coal, India’s power sector emissions rose by 7.2% in 2023 (+94 MtCO2) compared to 2022. This was far higher than the global increase of 1% and also higher than in most G20 countries including China (+5.9%). The only G20 country with a larger relative emissions increase in 2023 was Mexico (+11%, +17 MtCO2). 

This is the third consecutive annual increase in India’s power sector emissions since the Covid-19 pandemic and the consequent fall in electricity demand, which caused emissions to decline 4.2% in 2020.

India’s hydro generation fell throughout most of 2023 compared to 2022, but particularly in the second half of the year due to droughts. As a result, increases in coal generation were larger to make up the hydro fall. Coal generation grew most from August to October, with generation in October 2023 27 TWh above October 2022 levels. 

Solar generation also increased throughout the year, with January showing the largest increase of 2.7 TWh.

India’s solar generation has been increasing significantly over the last two decades, from just 0.01 TWh in 2000 to 113 TWh in 2023. Most of the growth came in the past five years. Generation in 2023 was 17 times larger than in 2015 (6.6 TWh). Solar more than doubled (+145%, +67 TWh) since 2019.

However, coal has accounted for the largest rise since 2000, increasing by nearly four times (+1,090 TWh) from 390 TWh in 2000 to 1,480 TWh in 2023. As a result, India’s power sector emissions have also more than tripled since 2000. However, had wind and solar generation not grown over the last two decades and this demand had been met by coal, India’s power sector emissions in 2023 would have been 13% higher. Given the current growth of electricity demand and coal generation, emissions are unlikely to peak soon.

Although India’s total power sector emissions have increased, the emissions intensity of electricity has declined slightly. 

The share of coal generation increased from 68% in 2000 to 75% in 2023. Generation from gas and from other fossil fuels declined.

In 2000, wind and solar accounted for only 0.3% of India’s power generation, but jumped to 9.9% in 2023. Other clean generation fell, with the share of hydro declining from 13% to 7.6%. Nuclear has remained between 2-3% of India’s electricity generation. 

However, additions of wind and solar were enough to increase the overall share of clean electricity from 17% in 2000 to 22% in 2023.

Consequently, the emissions intensity of India’s power sector fell slightly to 713 gCO2/kWh, below the level in 2000 (740 gCO2/kWh).

Despite progress, wind, solar and other low-carbon sources are not yet growing fast enough to meet India’s rapidly growing electricity demand, leading to continuously rising power sector emissions. 

In 2023, growth in clean generation met just 5.2% of India’s demand rise. While solar and wind met 30% of the increase, low hydro output created a shortfall. There have been only two years where clean electricity growth surpassed demand increases: in 2019 due to good hydro conditions and low demand growth and in 2020 because of a pandemic-induced demand fall. 

Accelerating clean electricity additions will be key to meeting rising electricity demand. The recent volatility in hydro conditions puts even more emphasis on the case for growth of other clean sources such as wind and solar.

Although clean power growth is not rising quickly enough to meet the increase in demand, India’s electricity grid has become cleaner since the Paris Agreement in 2015. The share of fossil fuels in India’s electricity mix dropped by four percentage points, from 82% to 78%. However, by comparison, the share of fossil generation in the global electricity mix fell faster, dropping six percentage points. 

The share of hydro generation fell over this period in India (2.5 percentage points) but by less than the average fall across Asia (3.4 percentage points). 

Wind and solar both increased their share of power generation. Solar generation grew from just 0.5% in 2015 to 5.8% in 2023. This is in line with the trend globally and in Asia. India’s wind generation increased slightly from 2.5% to 4.2%, but lagged behind the global growth in wind.

India’s power sector emissions are expected to increase for several years until clean sources grow fast enough to meet all of the rise in electricity demand, which would lead to a peak in fossil emissions and the beginning of their decline. 

However, to align with the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario, the power sector would need to decarbonise by 2045. This would require a reversal of India’s current emissions trajectory.

The carbon intensity of electricity generation in the EU is 244 gCO2 per kWh – almost half the global average (480 gCO2/kWh). This is because the EU has a higher share of clean electricity than the global average.

The EU’s per capita power sector emissions are 1.5 tCO2, less than the world average of 1.8 tCO2. 

 Meanwhile, the EU’s per capita power demand (6.1 MWh) is almost two-thirds higher than the world average (3.7 MWh). 

Electricity provided 21% of the EU’s final energy consumption in 2021, similar to the world average. This is expected to increase as member states electrify further.

The EU’s power demand decreased by 3.4% (-94 TWh) in 2023. The drop was mostly driven by reductions in output in energy-intensive industries. Over the past decade, the EU’s power demand has decreased at an average annual rate of 0.4%. The percentage fall in 2023 was similar compared to 2022, when the EU started grappling with the gas crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  

Thanks to a strong rise in clean power (+123 TWh, +7.3%), both coal and gas generation dropped significantly, by 25% (-113 TWh) and 16% (-86 TWh), respectively. This was the largest absolute drop in fossil generation in the EU since at least 2000. Wind saw the highest absolute rise in generation in the EU’s history, growing by 50 TWh (+12%). Solar also saw substantial growth of 37 TWh (+18%). 

Wind and solar grew most in France (+14 TWh), Germany (+13 TWh), Spain (+12 TWh) and the Netherlands (+12 TWh). As a result, the EU contributed 17% of global growth in solar and wind in 2023.

In 2023, the EU’s power sector emissions decreased by 19% (-154 MtCO2) compared to 2022, as a result of a drop in coal and gas generation, a decrease in total power demand and the growth of clean power generation. This was in contrast to the world and the G20, where power sector emissions both increased by 1%.

This is the largest absolute reduction in power sector emissions that the EU has seen since 2000.

The year-on-year percentage change in emissions (-19%) was nearly seven times greater than the average emissions decrease between 2013 and 2022 (-2.8%).

Lower electricity demand alongside strong wind and solar growth in the EU led to falls in coal and gas generation throughout 2023. EU fossil generation fell most in December due to good wind and hydro conditions, with a fall of 23 TWh (-24%) compared to December 2022. 

The highest increases of solar generation were recorded in the summer, with September (+7.1 TWh) and June (+6.2 TWh) showing the strongest year-on-year increases.

In the early 2000s, electricity demand in the EU was on an upward trend, growing at an average annual rate of 1.5%. However, since the global financial crisis this trend has reversed, to an average decrease of 0.6% annually between 2008 and 2023. 

Electricity demand also fell sharply in 2020 due to the Covid-19 crisis. Demand in the EU rebounded to 2019 levels in 2021, but fell by more than 3% in both 2022 and 2023.

In contrast, clean power generation has grown remarkably, up by 43% from 2000 to 2023. Wind and solar are the largest contributors to growth in clean generation, especially in the last ten years. Wind grew from 209 TWh in 2013 to 470 TWh in 2023. Solar tripled from 84 TWh in 2013 to 248 TWh in 2023.

In the last ten years, EU coal generation fell by 393 TWh, the second-largest fall after the US (-906 TWh).

EU power sector emissions peaked in 2007 and have been on a downward trajectory ever since, reaching their lowest level in 2023, 46% below the peak.

While the EU’s share of hydro generation remained steady at 10-14% from 2000 to 2023, the share of nuclear power in the EU mix began to drop gradually after 2010, from 29% in 2010 to 23% in 2023. Wind and solar grew from 0.8% to 27% of the total electricity mix from 2000 to 2023. Fossil generation declined from 52% of the mix in 2000 to 33% in 2023.

The EU’s power sector emissions intensity fell to 244 gCO2/kWh in 2023, 58% lower than the level in 2000 (419 gCO2/kWh). The world average saw a decline of 7% in the same period.

The EU’s power sector emissions peaked in 2007, as clean growth has consistently been large enough to displace fossil fuels. As a result, the EU’s power sector is decarbonising rapidly.

However, this has been achieved mostly in the context of falling electricity demand in the EU. 2008 was the only year with growing electricity demand in the EU where clean electricity growth was higher than demand growth, resulting in a decrease in fossil generation. Apart from 2008, reductions in fossil generation have only occurred in years where demand fell.

In 2023, the absolute increase in the EU’s clean power generation (+123 TWh), together with the demand fall (-94 TWh), was large enough to drive the significant drop in fossil fuel generation (-206 TWh). 

In 2022, poor hydro generation as a result of droughts meant fossil generation increased despite record additions of wind and solar. In 2023 generation recovered to its usual level. It is unclear whether hydro generation will stabilise, as extreme weather and conditions worsen.

The EU’s electricity grid has become cleaner since the Paris Agreement in 2015. The fossil fuel electricity share dropped by ten percentage points, from 43% to 33% – twice the percentage point decrease in the world’s fossil generation. 

Wind power is the source that has gained the largest share of EU electricity, growing by nine percentage points from 9.2% in 2015 to 17.5% in 2023. Solar increased by five percentage points from 3.5% in 2015 to 9.2% in 2023. The increase in wind share was much steeper in the EU compared to the world average, while the solar share increase matched worldwide trends.

According to the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario, the EU and other mature economies need to reduce their emissions from the power sector to near-zero by 2035. 

Since 2015, the EU has recorded an average annual fall of 43 MtCO2. To align with the IEA NZE scenario, an average annual fall of 54 MtCO2 is needed. If the EU continues to scale up its deployment of clean energy sources at the current rate, particularly wind and solar, this trajectory is within reach.

At 441 gCO2 per kWh, Russia’s electricity production is slightly less carbon intensive than the global average (480 gCO2/kWh), but significantly above the average across European countries of 300 gCO2/kWh.

Per capita emissions in Russia were at 3.6 tCO2, double the global average of 1.8 tCO2.

Russia’s per capita demand of 8.1 MWh in 2023 was more than double the world average of 3.7 MWh.

Changes to Russia’s power sector were minimal in 2023. Power demand grew by 19 TWh which constituted a moderate 1.6% increase.

Gas generation met most of this increase, growing 11 TWh (+2%) compared to 2022. A decrease in exports (increase in net imports) met most of the additional electricity production required.

Nuclear saw a small decline of 6.2 TWh (-2.8%), while coal and hydro both grew by 3.9 TWh and 2.9 TWh respectively.

Wind and solar combined saw a small reduction of 1.2 TWh – due to poor weather conditions – from an already low baseline of just 6.6 TWh in 2022.

Russia’s power sector emissions increased by 2% in 2023 as a result of the moderate rise in demand which was predominantly met by coal and gas generation. 

The 2% increase in 2023 marks the third consecutive year of growing emissions, in contrast to Russia’s neighbour, the EU, which recorded an unprecedented emissions drop of 19%. Russia’s power sector emissions rose faster than the global increase of 1%.

Despite generation changes over 2022 remaining small throughout 2023, there is a clear pattern between the first and second half of the year. In the first half, lower output from nuclear and hydro plants in comparison to 2022 led to stronger growth in coal and gas generation as well as lower exports (higher net imports). For example, May showed a 1.8 TWh drop in nuclear and a 1.7 TWh drop in hydro generation. This was made up by a 1.1 TWh rise in coal, a reduction in exports and a 3 TWh rise in gas, the largest year-on-year gas increase of any month in 2023.

The second half of the year saw a recovery in hydro conditions compared to 2022, with generation growing consistently year-on-year from July to December.

Electricity demand in Russia has been growing over the last two decades with short interruptions from the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. Electricity demand in 2023 (1,169 TWh) was 35% higher compared to 2000 (864 TWh).

Similarly, fossil generation, predominantly from gas, has increased 29% from 2000 to 2023. The increase of 170 TWh from 583 TWh to 753 TWh met more than half (56%) of Russia’s increase in electricity demand over that period. The rest was met by a moderate increase in hydro and nuclear generation. 

As a result of the increase in fossil generation, emissions increased 26%, from 413 MtCO2 in 2000 to 519 MtCO2 in 2023.

Russia’s electricity mix remains nearly unchanged compared to two decades ago. As a result, the emissions intensity of electricity generation in 2023 of 441 gCO2/kWh was only 6.2% lower than it was in 2000 (470 gCO2/kWh). In contrast, the EU saw its emissions intensity fall by 42% to 244 gCO2/kWh over the same period.

Russia’s continued reliance on fossil power is partially explained by the availability of domestic coal and gas resources. However, Russia is not only lagging behind the EU. Fossil fuel-rich nations in the Middle East, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, have started to diversify their electricity mixes.

Clean electricity additions are dominated by changes in hydro and nuclear generation. Growing electricity demand is mostly met by additions in fossil generation. Conversely, large drops in fossil generation are generally a result of falls in electricity demand.

The last significant fall in fossil generation occurred as a result of the demand reduction during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Electricity demand quickly recovered in 2021 with most of the rebound met by fossil generation.

Russia’s electricity mix has remained largely unchanged since the Paris Agreement in 2015. The share of fossil generation has dropped only two percentage points since 2015, from 66% to 64%, despite Russia announcing an economy-wide 70% emissions reduction target by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.

Other sources have also remained at largely the same levels as 2015. Crucially, Russia’s adoption of wind and solar lags behind the world and its neighbours. Wind and solar still only made up 0.3% and 0.2% respectively in 2023. Since 2015, Europe as a whole saw the share of wind rise from 6.3% to 12.3% and the share of solar rise from 2.2% to 5.9%, with similar trends at the global level.

In 2023, the carbon intensity of Japan’s power sector was 485 gCO2 per kWh, similar to the global average of 480 gCO2/kWh. However, per capita emissions (3.9 tCO2) were more than twice the world average (1.8 tCO2). This is because Japan’s per capita demand for electricity was 8.1 MWh, more than twice the per capita demand across Asia and globally. 

 Electricity provided 30% of Japan’s final energy consumption in 2021, significantly above the world average of 21%. This is expected to increase further as its economy electrifies.

In 2023, Japan’s power demand decreased by 1.9% (-20 TWh) after it grew for two consecutive years in 2021 and 2022. The decrease in demand, together with a rise in clean power, led to falls in both gas (-27 TWh, -7.4%) and coal generation (-22 TWh, -6.3%). The fall in fossil fuel generation in 2023 (-61 TWh, -8%) was Japan’s largest absolute drop since 2009.

In recent years, Japan’s nuclear phase-out policy has been reversed by the ‘Green Transformation’ (GX) policy, which came into force in 2023. The GX policy seeks to increase the use of clean power, including the lifetime extension of nuclear power plants. As some of the oldest nuclear reactors restarted their operations in 2023, Japan’s nuclear generation grew by 50% (+26 TWh). Nuclear power generated 7.6% of total electricity, up 2.6 percentage points from 2022.

Japan’s power sector emissions in 2023 were 491 MtCO2, a decrease of 7.3% (-39 MtCO2) compared to 2022. The fall was a result of the drop in coal and gas use, as clean power generation increased and demand fell. In contrast, the world saw a rise in power sector emissions of 1%. In the G7, power sector emissions fell 7.6% in 2023.

In 2023, Japan achieved the largest absolute and percentage reductions in emissions in the past decade. The year-on-year percentage fall in emissions (-7.3%) was significantly higher than the average annual emissions decrease over the last decade (-2.1%).

Japan’s fossil generation saw the largest falls in the first half of the year. The fourth quarter saw smaller decreases in fossil generation compared to 2022.

Year-on-year, coal generation fell every month except January, while nuclear generation increased throughout the year due to higher reactor availability.

Solar generation increased the most from July to October, although overall gains were modest.

Japan’s power sector emissions peaked in 2012. 2011 and 2012 had seen a rapid increase in emissions after the Fukushima nuclear disaster and the subsequent decision to shut down nuclear plants, causing a steep rise in fossil fuel generation to fill the power deficit. In recent years, nuclear generation has increased again.

The growth in solar in the 2010s replaced some of the fall in nuclear power. However, Japan has yet to tap into its wind power potential, with generation remaining stagnant at less than 1% over the past decade.

At the start of this century, Japan produced 38% of its electricity from clean power sources, mostly from nuclear (29%). Today, Japan’s clean power accounts for 31% of total generation. The drop in clean power share was mostly driven by the halt in nuclear generation after Fukushima in 2011 and slow growth in renewables except for solar.

The fall in the share of clean power sources led to a sharp increase in the emissions intensity of Japan’s power sector during 2011-2012. As Japan expanded solar and reintroduced nuclear power, the emissions intensity of electricity has been declining steadily since its peak in 2012. Nonetheless, it was 14% higher in 2023 than in 2000, whereas all other G7 countries saw emissions intensity decline during this period.

In 2023, the absolute increase in clean power (+40 TWh), together with the demand fall (-20 TWh), was large enough to drive a significant drop in fossil fuel generation (-61 TWh). 

Solar has been rising fast in Japan, having grown at an average annual rate of 24% in the past 10 years. The high growth was driven by the strengthening of subsidies for solar (feed-in-tariff and feed-in-premiums) after Fukushima. 

However, as Japan gradually phased out subsidies, the rate of solar growth has slowed in recent years, down to 7.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, wind has shown almost no growth. 

An acceleration of clean electricity growth is needed to further displace fossil generation from the electricity mix. Electrification of transport and industry is also expected to result in increased demand. This adds additional pressure to clean generation growth to meet and exceed new demand and drive down emissions.

Japan’s power grid has become cleaner since the Paris Agreement in 2015. The fossil fuel share in electricity dropped by 16 percentage points, from 85% to 69%. This is faster than the percentage point reduction globally.

Solar and nuclear power showed the highest increase in share among individual generation sources. Solar grew from 3% in 2015 to 11% in 2023. As nuclear power stations resumed their operations, the share of nuclear power increased from just 0.4% in 2015 to 7.6% in 2023. The increase in the share of solar and nuclear power is faster than in Asia or the world. However, wind power has shown no growth while the world wind share increased from 3.5% in 2015 to 7.8% in 2023.

Japan’s power sector emissions would need to reach net zero by 2035 to align with the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario.

After peaking in 2012, Japan’s power sector emissions have declined by an average of 15 MtCO2 per year. To be on track with the IEA NZE scenario, annual emissions falls would have to triple (-41 MtCO2 per year) until 2035. Despite Japan recording its second-largest fall in power sector emissions in the last two decades in 2023, the decline of 39 MtCO2 was still below the levels needed to reach net zero. 

Japan, along with the G7, committed to secure a predominantly clean power system by 2035, but has yet to map out a clear path for the goal.