Half of the world is past a peak in fossil power
Half of the world’s economies are already at least five years past a peak in power generation from fossil fuels, with emissions from these 107 power sectors falling by almost 20% in the last decade.
About
This analysis reviews trends in fossil power generation from 2000 to 2022 from Ember’s dataset of global electricity data from 215 countries.
Executive summary
Half of the world is past a peak in fossil power
There is growing evidence that the world is close to a global peak in power sector emissions.
Dave Jones Dave Jones Global Insights Lead, Ember
Not many people realise just how many countries’ power sectors are already well into a phase of fossil decline. For many countries, this was done simultaneously to rising electricity demand. Such is the success of solar and wind, the peak is close even in many key emerging economies. We are on the cusp of a new era of fossil decline in the global power sector.
Analysis
Half of the world is past a peak in fossil power
107 of 215 economies passed peak fossil generation at least five years ago, setting the stage for a global peak and subsequent decline in power sector emissions.
Oceania is also well into a period of fossil power decline having cut fossil generation by 20% in the last 13 years. Its success is largely down to progress made in Australia and New Zealand, which account for the vast majority (96%) of power demand in the region, and have cut fossil power by 20% and 56%, respectively, from their peaks.
In North America, fossil generation is already 15% lower than it was 15 years ago, largely influenced by changes in the US where fossil use in the power sector has dropped by 14% over the same period.
Ember’s data also shows that electricity generation from fossil fuels in Africa has plateaued, reducing by 0.5% in the last 3 years. Fossil fuel generation within Latin America and the Caribbean has similarly flattened, a trend that has persisted for over a decade. Peaks are also taking place in some of the largest economies in these regions. Chile’s fossil power is down by 20% from a peak six years ago, despite electricity demand increasing. Nigeria’s fossil power has dropped by 8% in the last 8 years, again while electricity demand has risen.
The only regions that have yet to reach a peak in fossil power are the Middle East and Asia. However, Asia has some success stories. Nepal has removed fossil fuels from its power sector entirely. Japan’s fossil power has dropped by more than a fifth since its peak a decade ago. Viet Nam has reduced its fossil generation by 16% in just three years, largely due to the expansion of wind and solar.
In the Middle East, just two countries with power demand unaffected by major conflicts – Jordan and the UAE – are approaching five years past a peak in fossil power. Of G20 countries, 10 countries are more than five years past a peak in fossil generation – the UK, Italy, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Africa, Australia, the US, France and Argentina, leaving the other 10 yet to reach this milestone. Yet, even in China, where electricity demand is expanding more rapidly than any other country, President Xi has pledged that coal use will begin to fall from 2026, as the country leads the world in wind and solar additions.
Supporting Material
Methodology
Summary
This report analyses annual power generation for 215 countries from 2000 to 2021, with 2022 data included for 78 countries representing 93% of global power demand. Data is collected from multi-country datasets (EIA, Eurostat, BP) as well as national sources (e.g China data from the National Bureau of Statistics). The latest annual generation data is estimated using monthly generation data. A detailed methodology can be accessed here. All the data can be viewed and downloaded freely from Ember’s website.
Caveats
This analysis focuses on domestic electricity generation from 2000 to 2022. An individual country’s fossil generation may have peaked earlier than the year 2000, meaning the number of years since its true historical peak is even higher than recorded in this analysis.
If fossil generation is unchanged for at least five years since a country’s initial fossil power peak, it is considered to have passed its peak.
Falls in fossil generation for some economies may have been caused by external factors such as war, civil unrest or recession. A few economies reported to be past a peak in fossil power may have replaced domestic fossil generation with electricity imports. Emissions from those imports have not been accounted for.
Acknowledgements
Credit: cbpix / Alamy Stock Photo
