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Breadcrumbs
Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling
Tripling global renewables is the single biggest action the world can take for the climate in this decade. An analysis of 2030 national wind targets shows that governments are already planning for a doubling, but fall short of a tripling.
Highlights
0.9 TW
2022 global wind capacity
2.4x
Factor of increase in global wind capacity by 2030 based on current national targets
3x
Factor of increase in global wind capacity needed by 2030 to meet the tripling goal
About
This report analyses national 2030 wind targets for the power sector, evaluating them against what is required to meet the global goal to triple renewables capacity by 2030. The report analyses 2030 wind capacity targets of 70 countries and the EU as a bloc. These countries collectively represent 99% of the current global wind capacity. National targets are sourced from national strategy or plans, executive orders, official projections, or credible third-party studies and can be found in Ember’s 2030 Global Renewable Target Tracker.
Executive summary
Doubling wind capacity already planned by governments, but more needed for tripling
National wind targets aim for a collective doubling of capacity by 2030, and global forecasts suggest this is achievable.
Katye Altieri Global Electricity Analyst, Ember
Governments are lacking ambition on wind, and especially onshore wind. Amidst the hype of solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar. The path to a cleaner energy future could be shaped by prioritising improved policies, regulatory frameworks and financial support.
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Chapter 1 Global wind target outlook
Wind targets aim for a doubling, fall short of tripling
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the global agreement by 133 countries at COP28 are all aligned that tripling renewables capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030 is required for a 1.5C pathway. A tripling of global renewables capacity by 2030 means a tripling of wind capacity. In the IEA Net Zero Roadmap, wind triples from 901 GW in 2022 to 2,742 GW in 2030. Solar, by comparison, rises five-fold. However, while wind capacity by 2030 is less than half of solar capacity, its generation is only slightly lower, because wind runs more hours per year than solar. Solar and wind are expected to provide over 90% of the growth in renewables capacity from 2022 to 2030.
In this chapter:
Chapter 2 National wind target outlook
Ambition must increase to meet wind targets and a tripling
National targets are not ambitious enough for a global tripling, and most countries are still not on track to deliver even these. Finding where and how ambition can be increased is needed to meet the tripling goal.
In this chapter:
Even though offshore wind in many countries is in its infancy, BNEF, GWEC and IEA all forecast that by 2030, total offshore wind will exceed the sum of 2030 offshore wind targets. IEA forecasts that offshore additions will rise from 17.5 GW in 2024 to 39.5 GW in 2028, which will bring global capacity of offshore wind to 218 GW by 2028, already more than the sum of 2030 targets. BNEF forecasts 258 GW of offshore wind by 2030, led by installations in China and the UK. GWEC has the most optimistic forecast for offshore wind with 298 GW forecast by 2030.
The GWEC Global Offshore Wind Report 2024 forecasts China accounting for almost half of global offshore wind in 2030. China does not have an offshore wind target although they are the largest offshore wind market with 37.3 GW as of 2023. In fact, China has more offshore wind than the rest of the world combined. Offshore wind has increased rapidly in China from 1 GW in 2015 to 37 GW in 2023.
Offshore wind has longer lead times than onshore wind and solar PV, but the rapid rise in China and other emerging markets shows that offshore wind can also grow rapidly with the right incentives. GWEC highlights a number of markets to watch for offshore wind in countries that do not yet have offshore wind targets including the Philippines, South Korea, Australia, India, Colombia, and Brazil. Unlocking more offshore wind to help contribute to a global tripling of wind requires unlocking permitting, financing, supply chains, and grids.
Conclusion
Governments must enable faster wind growth and increase ambition
National targets are not ambitious enough for a global tripling, and most countries are still not on track to deliver even these.
The vast majority of countries that currently have wind capacity also have 2030 wind targets, and forecasts suggest global 2030 targets are achievable in sum. However, it is clear from forecasts and targets that the existing set of policies fall short of a global tripling of wind. Furthermore, outside of China, policy interventions are needed to get installations back on track to meet targets in many countries. Given the long lead times for wind and the need for permitting, policy and regulatory frameworks are even more important for wind than solar. Investments in grid and transmission infrastructure, and actions to streamline permitting could signal confidence for increasing ambition on wind. The rapid growth in key markets, especially in China, and the upward revisions of forecasts in key regions, indicate that with the right combination of policy, regulatory and financial support, rapid and large-scale wind growth can be enabled.
Supporting Material
Acknowledgements
Katye Altieri, Dave Jones, Kostanza Rangelova
Report ContributorsUfuk Alparslan, Hannah Broadbent, Sarah Brown, Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, Reynaldo Dizon, Nicolas Fulghum, Euan Graham, Aditya Lolla, Frankie Mayo, Rashmi Mishra, Neshwin Rodrigues, Chris Rosslowe, Ruchita Shah, Oya Zaimoglu
Kindly peer reviewed by Feng Zhao (GWEC)