In response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the sky-high cost of fossil gas, the EU has raised ambition on phasing out fossil fuels for electricity. The REPowerEU plan now targets 69% renewable electricity by 2030, moving the EU’s wind and solar targets broadly in line with 1.5C compatible pathways. However, new analysis of on-the-ground deployment shows that wind and solar are set to fall behind the pace needed for these adequately ambitious pathways.
Ember’s analysis reveals that only four out of 27 EU countries (Finland, Croatia, Lithuania and Sweden) are on track to achieve sufficiently high annual wind capacity increases. Despite their wind power potential, France, Spain and the Netherlands are likely to flatline or see decreasing installation rates to 2026.
EU solar capacity has seen exponential growth, rising from 104 GW to 162 GW in the last three years. This rate must continue for solar capacity to meet the necessary level by 2030. Forecasts, however, indicate growth falling behind and key countries lagging. Italy is predicted to install only a third of the yearly required capacity between 2022 and 2026.
Permitting is a key challenge to delivering on renewables ambition. The analysis finds that obtaining permits for a wind project can take up to 120 months, five times longer than the EU’s binding limit of 24 months. None of the countries analysed came in below that limit.
