Breadcrumbs
Bavaria's wind potential can deliver more than its transition
Despite being Germany's largest state, Bavaria is currently lagging in terms of wind power development, with only 2.6 GW of installed capacity. However, Bavaria has the potential to increase this capacity sixfold and achieve its renewable energy goals.
Highlights
6x
If the call to reduce the distance to 800 metres between turbines and residences was adopted across the state, then wind capacity could jump almost sixfold to 15 GW
22 TWh
Bavaria could generate 22 TWh of wind, accounting for 17% of Germany’s total wind power and 22% of its onshore wind
27%
The additional wind generation would enable Bavaria to slash its current gas consumption by 27% and, therefore, increase its energy sovereignty
About
This report examines the untapped potential of onshore wind in Bavaria and how increased deployment could strengthen the region’s energy sovereignty and reduce the costs of continued high dependence on imported gas.
This analysis was written in collaboration with Initiative Klimaneutrales Deutschland. The report is also available to read in German.
Executive summary
Bavaria aims to reach net zero by 2040
This goal is enshrined in the Bavarian climate law. Yet, in the past 20 years, the Bavarian state government has hampered the energy transition. A selection of politicians has vocally lobbied against the deployment of windmills and enhanced grid infrastructure.
Carolin Friedemann Director and founder of the Munich-based Initiative Climate Neutral Germany
Bavaria is well equipped to reach its 2040 net zero target: it has a strong administration, economic power and huge potential for renewable energies. Bavaria now needs to set the right framework conditions to utilize this potential, especially regarding wind energy, in order to remain a strong business location and to preserve livelihoods and prosperity.
Analysis
Bavaria has enough wind potential to deliver on renewables targets
Traditionally, there have been assertions that the wind does not blow enough in Bavaria to justify installing wind turbines. However, analysis shows that this can be challenged.
In February, Poland cancelled its 10H rule that had been in place since 2016. The distance restrictions for onshore wind turbines have been reduced to 700 metres. In addition, the new law stipulates that the developer must offer at least 10% of the installed capacity of the wind turbine to the residents of the municipality thereby significantly reducing their energy bills.
Bavarian residents could be reaping similar benefits if the government adopted the minor amendment to existing onshore wind regulation that is being called for.
Supporting Material
Methodology
Bavarian potential wind capacity data (GW): ENSPRESO – WIND – ONSHORE and OFFSHORE. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/6d0774ec-4fe5-4ca3-8564-626f4927744e. [NUTS2 regions DE21- DE27]
Calculation for potential wind capacity (GW): share of land x suitable area x power density of wind farms
Potential wind capacity with 800m distance restrictions: interpolation has been applied to the suitable areas for multiple different distance rules contained in the ENSPRESO data to estimate the suitable area (km2) in Bavaria if a 800m restriction rule was introduced across the state. This calculated suitable area has then been inserted into the above formula to determine the implied potential wind capacity (GW) for 800m distance restrictions
Power density of onshore wind farms: 3 MW/km2
Capacity factors of onshore wind turbines: 10% to 22.5%
Gas power plant efficiency rate: 50% (Higher Heating Value/Gross Calorific Value)
German gas prices: PEGAS Trading Hub Europe (THE) settlement prices on 17 November 2023
Solar capacity is expressed GWdc (direct current)
Acknowledgements
Nicolas Fulghum, who reviewed the data. Clara Mewes, policy expert, Initiative Klimaneutrales Deutschland, who co-wrote the report and translated it into German.
Image creditARphotography / Alamy Stock Photo