Highlights
-52%
Decline in OECD coal generation since it peaked in 2007
17%
Share of coal generation in the OECD in 2023
27
Of the 38 OECD countries are committed to being coal-free by 2030.
About
This report analyses annual generation data from Ember’s Data Explorer, to show how the electricity generation of the 38 OECD countries is evolving.
Executive summary
Halving coal power
The OECD’s century-long reliance on coal power is rapidly coming to a close.
Global Insights Programme Director, Ember
Coal power is on its way out in the world’s richest economies. It may surprise some that the shift was not primarily to gas, but rather directly to solar and wind. It is encouraging to see mature economies now switch their focus to repowering their whole economy with clean energy, to ultimately close the chapter not only on coal, but on all fossil fuels.
Analysis
OECD coal power is half its peak
Wind and solar have made a substantial impact on making electricity cleaner, as coal generation in OECD countries falls below half of its peak.
In this chapter:
Conclusion
Closing the chapter on coal
The rapid displacement of coal power by solar and wind in the OECD gives confidence that coal will soon be consigned to history.
In 2021, at COP26 in Glasgow, the UK presidency consigned to commit coal to history. In the OECD countries, this is happening. Coal power in the OECD has already halved since its peak, and will continue to collapse this decade. It won’t be completely phased out by 2030 in every OECD country, but it will be a shadow of its former self.
This matters, because coal, more than any other fossil fuel, has added to climate change. And the world’s richest countries bear the largest historical responsibility for this. Many OECD countries began to industrialise over a century ago, with coal as a key source of energy. But a new era has arrived, as the world upgrades to cleaner and cheaper sources of electricity like solar and wind.
And countries in the OECD are not just targeting coal power. A focus towards a net zero power sector in many OECD countries means gas power will also begin to fall rapidly in the years ahead. This is critical since OECD countries now produce more electricity from gas than coal. Over half (52%) of OECD electricity in 2023 still came from fossil fuels, so achieving net zero power by 2035 would mean decarbonising half the OECD’s electricity supply in just 13 years.
Many OECD countries have committed to keeping to a 1.5C aligned pathway; the IEA shows this would require an 80% fall in OECD economy-wide emissions by 2035. The upcoming submission of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to 2035 will reveal the level of ambition in these countries. But the direction of travel is clear – OECD nations will be the first to decarbonise their power systems, setting a precedent for what can be achieved worldwide.
As OECD coal power has been falling, it has risen rapidly in emerging economies in Asia. Globally coal power hit a new record last year, producing 30% of all global energy-related CO2 emissions according to the IEA.
In the 16 years since OECD coal generation peaked, China’s coal power has doubled, India’s has tripled and Southeast Asia’s has quadrupled. Between them, they accounted for three-quarters of the world’s coal generation in 2023 – 55%, 14% and 5% respectively. Rapid demand growth in emerging economies requires an even more ambitious plan to scale renewables than required in OECD countries.
But the era of rising global coal use, too, is coming to an end. China is building renewables so quickly that coal power might have already peaked, and India’s renewables plans mean that coal power will not grow too aggressively this decade. It is not just the OECD that has been on the journey of switching focus from coal to renewables.
For so long, coal power was synonymous with industrial growth. The tables have now turned, and policymakers throughout the world are instead basing industrial strategy around clean energy.
Supporting Material
Methodology
Access
The data and the methodology can be accessed here.
Acknowledgements
This lead author was Dave Jones, with data visualisation from Jivan Zhen Thiru and Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart. There was drafting support from Hannah Broadbent, Euan Graham and Kostantsa Rangelova.
Cover photoCredit: cbpix / Alamy Stock Photo