OECD progress towards zero carbon electricity by 2035
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For countries eyeing economy-wide carbon neutrality in 2050, zero carbon power in the 2030s is a crucial short-term target. How are OECD countries matching up?
Executive summary
The race to clean electricity
What progress are OECD countries making towards electricity sector goals that will need to be met in the 2030s on the way to 2050?
For countries eyeing economy-wide carbon neutrality in 2050, zero carbon power in the 2030s is a crucial short-term target. Recent Ember analysis found that this timeline was the unspoken consensus behind US, UK and EU emission reduction plans, with power sector decarbonisation in the next 10-15 years underpinning longer term goals.
The Energy Transitions Commission has called for all ‘developed economies’ to commit to 2050 economy-wide net zero and near zero-carbon power sectors by the mid-2030s. 21 of 37 OECD countries have a 2050 net zero target in place, with some taking steps to set goals around coal phase out or clean power in the next decade and a half. While many OECD countries beat the global average for share of clean electricity generation, and from wind and solar specifically, the next decade will need to see a massive acceleration in investment and deployment to be on track for Net Zero.
Zero-Carbon Power
The first step towards Net Zero
In this chapter:
A handful of countries are responsible for most coal generation across the OECD, with varying progress on phase-out in recent years. Although the US has the largest total amount, it has seen coal fall -43% since 2015. Japan has seen only a -15% decline in the same time, and South Korea only a -10% fall.
Many OECD countries are still dependent on coal for a significant share of their electricity generation. Poland and Australia are the most coal-reliant OECD countries with 70% (109 TWh) and 54% (135 TWh) of electricity generated from coal in 2020 respectively. While coal has declined over the last 15 years in both countries, the pace is nowhere near fast enough to reach zero coal by 2030. Australia has no coal phase out target in place and Poland recently agreed to stop coal production in 2049, only one year before the EU’s 2050 economy-wide net zero target.
Other OECD countries that have coal heavy electricity mixes are likewise lacking realistic short term coal phase-out goals that would put them on track for 2035 zero-carbon power. With the exception of Israel, no OECD country that sources a quarter or more of electricity from coal has a Paris compliant coal phase-out policy in place. In addition to Poland and Australia, this includes Japan (29% of electricity from coal), Czechia (40%), Turkey (34%), Slovenia (26%), and South Korea (36%).
Conclusion
Looking towards 2035
To stay on track for mid-century economy-wide net zero goals, OECD countries will need to significantly ramp up ambition in the next fifteen years.
Sizeable investments in wind and solar will be critical, with an all out effort on building new capacity needed to simultaneously meet demand and replace fossil generation.
There’s a growing consensus that OECD countries need clean power by 2035, with coal phase-out by 2030 as an essential first step. There’s no time to lose.
