Highlights
11 of 26
National transmission grid plans based on outdated wind and solar targets
205 GW
Grids are being designed using scenarios with more than 200 GW less new solar than anticipated by market forecasts
€5 bn
REPowerEU underestimates annual grids spending by at least €5 bn
About
This report aims to contribute to the current debate on power grids by offering an analysis of the present state and future developments of national transmission grids in Europe, framed within the context of the energy transition. The report analyses data related to national electricity transmission networks across 35 European countries (EU-27, Norway, Switzerland, UK and Western Balkans), assessing their readiness to deliver on power sector needs for the energy transition, and concluding with key recommendations.
Energy scenarios used by national electricity Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to develop their grid plans are benchmarked against established policy targets and market outlooks. We find a number of grid plans are based on under-ambitious energy scenarios, risking that transmission networks will be inadequately prepared to support the expected wind and solar build out.
A policy brief is also available here, summarising the key messages and policy recommendations.
Executive summary
Transmission networks risk holding back the turbocharged energy transition
Grid investments across Europe must be stepped up and planning processes fully aligned with the new reality of the energy transition.
Elisabeth Cremona Energy & Climate Data Analyst, Ember
We can’t afford to overlook grids. They risk holding Europe’s supercharged energy transition back if plans aren’t updated. Making sure solar and wind can actually connect to the system is as critical as the panels and turbines themselves. There is no transition without transmission.
Gridlock
Grid outlooks suggest the energy transition is at risk
Decisions made today will shape Europe’s future power grid for decades to come. The challenge lies in ensuring that network planning is sufficiently forward-looking to adapt to an accelerating transition with many faster moving pieces, notably wind and solar.
In this chapter:
This disconnect between TSO plans and on-the-ground trends extends across fast developing clean technologies. There is also evidence that the rapidly evolving trends in battery storage may have been overlooked by some TSOs when planning future grids. Twelve grid plans provide figures for future battery storage deployment. This is despite a forecast of exponential growth in the sector, taking Europe’s grid-scale battery storage from 7 GW today to over 50 GW by 2030. Ireland is currently a leading market, and Eirgrid’s latest grid plan foresees 3.2 GW by 2030. Yet, recent research reveals an existing project pipeline of 6.3 GW, of which 4.7 GW have been approved (in addition to 1.3 GW already in operation). Conservative assumptions such as this may be leading TSOs to underestimate the degree of flexibility available on their future networks, leading to an over-reliance on conventional fossil sources.
While grid plans are not specifically designed to take market trends into account, they should be forward-looking enough to adapt to the evolving investment landscapes. This is especially important as clean energy technologies can be deployed much faster than the time required to build or upgrade transmission lines.
Grid growth
Grid development plans show promise, but must be stepped up
TSO plans reveal a trend of increasing grid expansion over the coming decade, alongside network refurbishments and upgrades. However, higher or front-loaded investments are likely to be necessary in countries where grid plans lag behind existing energy policy.
In this chapter:
Pierre Tardieu WindEurope Chief Policy Officer
Europe wants a lot more wind energy. But grids are rapidly becoming the number one bottleneck for the build-out of new wind. Take grid permits: hundreds of gigawatts of new wind farms are stuck in grid connection queues. Delays in the build-out of onshore and offshore grids are making things worse. Implementing the EU Action Plan for Grids must be a top priority for the current and incoming European Commission – and for EU Member States. There’s simply no transition without transmission.
Recommendations
Preparing the grid for the clean energy transition
Expansion of national transmission networks is accelerating but grid plans are struggling to keep pace with increasing ambitions.
The EU’s commitment to limit global heating to 1.5C requires the development of a predominantly clean power system across Europe by 2040. To ensure adequate preparation of electricity infrastructure, future scenarios used to plan the grid must fit such a vision. This is reflected in Action 2 of the Grids Action Plan, which states that TSOs and Member States should ensure sufficient electricity transmission projects to fulfil the infrastructure needs by 2030 until 2050. This should not only be taken to refer to interconnection but also preparing national transmission networks.
Some TSOs already take this into account, implementing “Target Grid” strategies which look ahead to the task that awaits beyond typically five to ten year planning horizons. This enables TSOs to take early action and also feed more explicitly into policy making, shedding light on the trade-offs associated with different political decisions.
Supporting Material
Methodology
Definitions
National transmission grid
For this report, “national transmission grid” refers to electricity grid infrastructure above 110 kV, and excludes cross-border connections. There are cases where TSOs own lines with voltage levels below 110 kV but these are not included in the data of this report for reasons of consistency.
Line length
Line lengths are reported as single circuit lengths, not geographic routes. For the reporting of line lengths, the double circuits of a power line are considered as different lines, unless otherwise indicated, i.e. a double circuit line of 10 km is reported as a single circuit of 20 km. This approach was adopted to better illustrate the development of grid capacity; the capacity of a line can be increased by adding another circuit, even though this will not increase the length of the geographic route. That being said, we recognise the importance of reporting geographic line lengths to convey the reality of grid expansion, that is, whether TSOs are creating a new route or simply adding capacity to an existing route.
Planned line length refers to the expected change in the length of the national transmission grid based on projects proposed in the TSO grid plan. It should be noted that proposed projects and those approved by the national government are not necessarily the same. However, data availability and transparency presents an issue in reporting the latter.
Planned total line length is calculated as the net change in line length, taking into account additions (both new and existing routes), referred to as “new lines” and decommissioning. In cases where annual data is not available, Ember annualised the reported changes to lines. Plans for refurbishment or upgrade of existing lines are recorded, but not considered to change the total line length unless involving the decommissioning and reconstruction of an existing line. In such a case, the line lengths decommissioned and reconstructed are recorded under “decommissioned” and “new”, respectively.
Investment figures
It should be noted that the annual investment volumes largely relate to the grid developments proposed by the TSOs, and may be different to the final list of projects approved by the government. These investment figures are not always made publicly available.
Data sources
Grid development plans
Grid development plans published by Transmission System Operators (TSOs) constituted the primary source of information, along with data published in their websites. The editorial deadline was set at 31 December 2023. New plans or updates published after this date could not be taken into account.
Where no English version was available, these were downloaded in their original language and translated to English using Google Translate. There may be some cases where the data is not precise as it had to be extracted manually from charts in reports as data is often not made available in accessible formats. Links to the grid development plans can be accessed here.
Data from the grid development plans was collected by Ember in a standardised format, and shared with TSOs prior to publication to allow time for review and correction where required. Ember extends its gratitude to the many TSOs that actively participated in the consultation process.
TSOs from the following countries kindly provided feedback on the data collected by Ember: Albania, Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Spain, Finland, France, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway, Portugal and Kosovo.
No data input was received from TSOs of the following countries: Austria, Bosnia Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Sweden, Slovenia, and Slovakia. The 2024 report published by SeeNext on Renewable Energy Industry in Southeast Europe was used to validate data for Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia.
National policy targets
Latest national policy targets represent the most recent political commitments. These are sourced from Ember’s Live NECP Target Tracker and 2030 Global Renewable Target Tracker. Old national targets are based on 2019 National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs).
Further notes
- Inconsistent data availability meant that only selected countries could be assessed across all categories, including capacity planning and targets, market outlooks, length of planned new and modernised grid lines and investment.
- The energy scenarios underlying Germany’s grid development plan could not be benchmarked against national policy targets or market outlooks as 2030 capacity figures for wind and solar were not available. These are published for 2037 and 2045.
- Malta is not included in the list of European countries as it does not have a transmission system, except for one 220 kV AC interconnector to Sicily.
- Solar capacity can be reported as DC or AC rated capacity. However, capacity figures from TSO plans, national policy targets and market outlooks rarely specify which style of reporting is used. Assumptions were made by the authors in an attempt to compare like with like in this report. These assumptions are clearly stated in the datasheets.
- Comparisons between energy scenarios from TSO grid plans and market outlook from SolarPower Europe are based on AC capacity, in line with the authors’ assumptions. Any DC capacity figures were converted to AC assuming a 1.2 AC to DC conversion rate, the same used by SolarPower Europe.
- Seven countries do not report planned network expansion in kilometres. The lines added in these countries between 2023 and 2026 was estimated by applying the average percentage increase of the 28 other European countries. These countries represent over 90% of the total current line length of national transmission grids.
- In benchmarking data from grid plans and market outlooks, there were a few instances where reported data diverged by one year. For instance Finland’s grid plan reports capacities for 2029 while SolarPower Europe provides outlook figures for 2030. The reference years for energy scenario data from grid plans is indicated in the datasheets.
Acknowledgements
Ember extends its gratitude to all the TSOs who provided feedback on collected data, and particularly to REN and Elia who provided substantial insights into the development process of national grid plans.
We also thank Alexander Dusolt (Agora Energiewende) and Zsuzsanna Pato (Regulatory Assistance Project) for reviewing the report, and providing their comments and suggestions.
Cover photoAndreas Teich via Alamy