Highlights
-19%
Record fall in both fossil generation and CO2 emissions
44%
Record share of renewables in the EU electricity mix, over 40% for the first time
55 TWh
Record annual growth in wind generation pushes it above gas for the first time
About
The European Electricity Review analyses full-year electricity generation and demand data for 2023 in all EU-27 countries to understand the region’s progress in transitioning from fossil fuels to clean electricity. It is the eighth annual report on the EU power sector published by Ember (previously as Sandbag). Our data is free and easily downloadable, and is available at annual and monthly granularity. We hope others also find the data useful for their own analysis.
Executive summary
Europe’s electricity transition takes crucial strides forward
A record fall in coal, gas and CO2 emissions in 2023 left the EU with a cleaner electricity mix than ever, as renewables took major steps forward. The EU’s electricity transition is in full swing.
Europe Programme Director, Ember
The EU’s power sector is in the middle of a monumental shift. Fossil fuels are playing a smaller role than ever as a system with wind and solar as its backbone comes into view. The energy crisis and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not lead to coal and gas resurgence — far from it. Coal is nearing phase-out, and as wind and solar grow, gas will be next to enter terminal decline. However it is not time to get complacent. The EU needs a laser focus on rapidly deploying wind, solar and flexibility to create a system free of fossil fuels.
Chapter 1 | Pathway to clean power
Encouraging progress in difficult times
Europe’s power sector transition made crucial progress in 2023 as the energy system emerged from a period characterised by high prices and political intervention. While the EU strengthened renewables ambition in response, Member States are not yet aiming high enough for common EU goals, and delivery remains too slow.
The gas crisis of 2022 exposed the many costs of fossil fuel dependency. It cost governments billions of euros in energy subsidies, plunged millions of Europeans into energy poverty, put global energy security at risk and drove inflation to the highest levels in decades.
While consumers and businesses still struggle with the economic fallout, the climate crisis continues to intensify, with 2023 the second hottest year on record in Europe. Against this backdrop, it is clear that the transition to affordable renewable power will help on multiple fronts. There are encouraging signs that Europe is bolstering its ambition and picking up the pace, but delivery is still not fast enough for the EU’s energy goals or international climate obligations.
As wind and solar power reach new highs across Europe, targets set by the EU and its Member States have begun to shift to reflect a future energy system dominated by renewable power. The REPowerEU plan foresees 72% of power generation coming from renewables by 2030, up from 44% in 2023. This is driven by wind and solar, which will double from 27% in 2023 to 55% in 2030.
EU Member States have started to realign their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) with this future, increasing their 2030 wind and solar targets by 45% and 70% respectively, compared to just four years ago. While not yet sufficient to deliver on EU goals, the latest plans put wind and solar on track to produce the majority of EU power by 2030, with wind as the single largest source.
Europe’s direction of travel towards clean power was entrenched further by key political statements in 2023. Seven interconnected Member States pledged to decarbonise their power systems by 2035, meaning 10 Member States have now formally aligned with this critical milestone for net zero.
Furthermore, Czechia, Europe’s third largest coal power producer, joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance. The year concluded with the call from COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels, including the EU advocating for the tripling of renewables and doubling of the rate of energy efficiency improvements globally by 2030. This can be seen as a global recognition of these key tools for climate action, and places even more emphasis on the EU to deliver.
Heightened ambitions mean nothing without delivery. Despite breaking records in 2023, wind power continued to struggle against economic headwinds. Deployment must be accelerated if EU goals are to be achieved. The roll-out of solar power is a more positive story, with strong capacity growth maintained in 2023, but now is not the time for complacency. The challenges facing the power sector transition are complex but increasingly well understood: from slow permitting to outdated grid infrastructure and vulnerability to global supply chains. These complex challenges require dedicated action, guided by a clear and united vision for a clean power system.
The power sector transition must remain a political focus in 2024 in order to consolidate and build on the progress made last year. A highly electrified energy system based on cheap, domestic renewables can power Europe’s economy while slashing carbon emissions. Rapid progress is essential in order to seize the commercial advantages, uphold international climate commitments, and expedite the benefits of cheap renewables across Europe.
Chapter 2 | Insights
Insights
The biggest stories of 2023: Fossil power collapsed as wind and solar hit new records and demand slumped. Flexibility emerged as key to stepping up this power system shift.
In this chapter:
This demand response is currently achieved through consumers manually switching off appliances. The benefits will increase exponentially with greater automation and digitalisation. The roll out of smart meters must be prioritised across Europe. It is also important to note that even those consumers that do not or cannot participate ultimately reap the rewards of increased demand side flexibility due to the related reduction in energy and system costs.
These are exciting, if challenging, times. And 2024 must be a pivotal year in terms of transposing these significant first steps in developing system flexibility policies into tangible actions and on-the-ground deployment.
Chapter 3 | EU Electricity Trends
Data on the EU electricity sector in 2023
Data on the EU electricity sector in 2023, with an overview of changes and trends over the last two decades.
In this chapter:
While total EU emissions have been falling since 2007, some countries have achieved faster declines than others, driven largely by the adoption of wind and solar. Among the largest EU emitters, Spain’s emissions declined fastest. Its 2023 emissions of 47 MtCO2 were 55% lower than those in 2000 (104 MtCO2). As a result, Spain’s share of EU emissions fell from 9.5% to 7.2%.
In contrast, Poland’s share of EU emissions has increased by 4.7 percentage points from 12.4% in 2000 to 17.1% in 2023, as the country’s emissions decline of just 18% failed to keep pace with EU-wide reductions of 41% over the same period.
Germany remains the largest single contributor with an emissions fall of 42% since 2000, in line with the EU-wide trend.
Chapter 4 | EU Electricity Source Trends
Analysis of the different electricity sources in 2023
Conclusion
Strides forward must be larger and faster
The clean transition took significant steps forward in 2023, with focus shifting to the creation of a flexible, efficient decarbonised power system. Faster implementation is now key to delivering the full benefits of the transition.
The EU is entering a new era in its energy transition. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 instigated a turning point away from fossil fuel reliance that has manifested into a structural shift and created an accelerated charge towards clean power.
In 2023, the EU substantially stepped up its move away from not only coal, but also gas. If 2022 saw a slight uptick in coal generation due to emergency supply measures and substantial issues with both hydro and nuclear supply, 2023 has reconfirmed the demise of coal across the EU. Gas generation has also been falling for the last four years and fossil fuels have reached new lows, accounting for less than a third of the EU’s electricity generation for the first time ever.
The lessons learnt that reliance on fossil fuels creates huge economic and security risks must not be, and do not appear to have been, forgotten.
It is widely accepted that an accelerated energy transition is the only solution to mitigate these risks. And wind and solar are driving the EU towards its new renewables target. While solar continues to lead the way in terms of rate of growth, wind is the major player, reaching a significant milestone in 2023 by overtaking gas generation for the first time. Despite record generation and capacity additions for both wind and solar, however, it is clear that deployment is not yet increasing at the required speed.
For the second year in a row, we have seen a significant annual fall in electricity demand, which has assisted progress in weaning off fossil fuels. But it is certainly not time to get complacent. EU power sector emissions saw their highest ever fall in 2023, but as the growth of electrification across all sectors brings increasing demand, ensuring this is covered by a step-up in renewables and their key enablers is crucial to achieving climate goals.
Supporting Material
Methodology
Generation, imports and demand
Annual data from 1990 to 2022 is gross generation, published primarily by Eurostat with wind generation data from IRENA. 2023 data is an estimate of gross generation, based on net generation gathered from monthly data. This estimate is calculated by applying absolute changes in net generation to the most recent gross baseline.
Net imports from 1990 to 2022 are also published by Eurostat, with recent data estimated in the same manner as generation. Demand is calculated as the sum of generation and net imports, and validated against direct demand figures published by ENTSO-E.
Monthly data is gathered from a number of sources, including both centrally reported ENTSO-E data and directly reported national transmission system operators. In some cases data is published on a monthly lag; here we have estimated recent months based on relative changes in previous years. These cases are flagged in the dataset.
Monthly published data is often reported provisionally, and is far from perfect. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, and where possible we compare multiple sources to confirm their agreement.
Below is a list of countries included, and sources for monthly data:
- Austria: E-Control GmbH; hourly hydro data used in analysis based on ENTSO-E and E-Control
- Belgium: ENTSO-E
- Bulgaria: ENTSO-E
- Croatia: ENTSO-E
- Cyprus: Eurostat; hourly data used in analysis from Cyprus Transmission System Operator
- Czechia: ENTSO-E
- Denmark: ENTSO-E
- Estonia: ENTSO-E
- Finland: Biomass, gas, hydro, solar and wind from Eurostat; other fuels from ENTSO-E; hourly biomass data used in analysis based on ENTSO-E and Eurostat
- France: ENTSO-E
- Germany: Gas and solar from Energy-Charts; other fuels from Agora Energiewende; flow data from ENTSO-E; yearly gas generation data from the Energy Institute
- Greece: ENTSO-E
- Hungary: Solar data before 2020 from Eurostat; other fuels from ENTSO-E
- Ireland: Generation and flow data from Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland; hourly data not included in analysis due to data quality issues
- Italy: Biomass and solar from Terna; other fuels from ENTSO-E; flow data from Terna
- Latvia: ENTSO-E
- Lithuania: ENTSO-E
- Luxembourg: ENTSO-E
- Malta: Eurostat; no hourly data available for use in analysis
- Netherlands: Base data provided by Statistics Netherlands (CBS); more recent months estimated based on ENTSO-E and data kindly provided by NetAnders; hourly solar data until October 2023 used in analysis kindly provided by Solcast, thereafter modelled based on insolation data from Open-Meteo and monthly generation data; hourly wind, gas and biomass data used in analysis based on ENTSO-E and CBS
- Poland: Solar data from ARE via Instrat; other fuels from ENTSO-E; pre-2021 hourly solar data used in analysis modelled based on capacity from Instrat and insolation data from Open-Meteo
- Portugal: ENTSO-E
- Romania: ENTSO-E
- Slovakia: ENTSO-E
- Slovenia: ENTSO-E
- Spain: ENTSO-E; flow data from Red Eléctrica
Sweden: ENTSO-E; hourly solar data used in analysis from Elstatistik
Emissions
Ember’s calculations for emissions are continually improving, but may be conservative or otherwise uncertain in ways we describe below. These figures aim to include full lifecycle emissions including upstream methane, supply chain and manufacturing emissions, and include all gases, converted into CO2 equivalent over a 100 year timescale.
Emissions can vary over time as power station efficiency changes, and as different fuel qualities are used. Therefore, we report emissions values by fuel type, and emissions intensity by country. These values are calculated by multiplying our generation numbers by emissions factors taken from a number of sources, detailed below. We aim where possible to capture variance between geographies and over time in emissions intensity from different fuels. We have recently updated this approach and are actively working to improve it; if you have any comments or suggestions for improvement please email [email protected].
Our sources and methodology for different fuels is described below. All factors we use are for net generation; where we report gross generation we adjust our factors by 6% for thermal fuel sources and 1% for others.
Coal
Data is taken from Gibon et al. 2022 (UNECE) and the Global Energy Monitor Coal Plant Tracker (GEM). UNECE provides lifecycle emissions factors for different fuel types for the year 2020 for each REMIND region. UNECE reports values for different technologies using bituminous coal; we derive factors for different coal grades based on IPCC 2005 direct combustion emissions factors. Using country-level annual technology and coal grade mixes from GEM capacity data, we estimate blended emissions factors per country per year for hard coal and lignite. The range of factors used in the EU from 2000-2023 is
- Hard coal: 952-1045 g/kWh
- Lignite: 1033-1080 g/kWh
Gas
Country-level factors are taken from Jordaan et al. 2022, and are for generation for the year 2017. Two sets of factors are provided; we use the ones that attempt to account for combined heat and power. For smaller countries where no data is available, a world average number is used. The range of factors used in the EU is:
- 334-620 g/kWh.
Nuclear and wind
We use region-level data from UNECE. The values used are:
- Onshore wind: 12 g/kWh
- Offshore wind: 15 g/kWh
- Nuclear: 5 g/kWh
Bioenergy, hydro, solar, other renewables and other fossil fuels
We use data from the IPCC AR5 WG3 Annex III (2014). These are global estimates for the year 2020; we use midpoint lifecycle factors. These are:
- Bioenergy: 230 g/kWh
- Hydro: 24 g/kWh
- Solar: 48 g/kWh
- Other renewables: 38/kWh
- Other fossil: 700/kWh
Caveats
This approach attempts to account for some geographical and temporal variance in emissions factors. It is a work in progress, and figures may differ from reality for a number of reasons. Some of these are listed below:
- Coal: UNECE base factors are for coal plants in the year 2020. They do not capture operational efficiency losses associated with older plants or intra-technology efficiency differences. Finally, we make assumptions to derive factors for coal grades other than lignite, including identical combustion efficiencies and upstream emissions per MWh generated.
- Gas: our gas factors are specific to the year 2017, so do not account for temporal variations in plant efficiencies or methane leakage rates. The methodology in Jordaan et al. 2022 also prefers to underestimate methane emissions where there is doubt. In general there is very significant uncertainty around methane emissions rates, even in countries that prioritise collecting this data. Some authors believe that emissions rates are significantly higher than assumed in our factors.
- Time horizon: upstream methane emissions for gas and coal generation are calculated on a long-term basis assuming methane is 21 times as potent as CO2. However, the short-term impact of methane is actually four times higher, at 86 times the potency of CO2 over the first 20 years in the atmosphere. See this page for more information.
- Solar and wind: recent efficiency improvements have seen wind and solar emissions intensity drop, as energy output has increased relative to emissions from manufacturing. Our numbers may therefore be higher than reality. We also do not currently capture geographical variation in emissions intensity within REMIND regions; this can be significant, as countries with lower annual solar capacity factors will have proportionately higher lifecycle emissions.
- Bioenergy: our value is very likely to be a significant underestimate of the actual emissions caused by bioenergy generation. The emissions intensity of bioenergy is highly dependent on the feedstock, how it was sourced, and what would have happened had the feedstock not been burnt for energy. The IPCC figure we use is for dedicated energy crops and crop residues, rather than the much more commonly used woody or forest biomass, which has been shown to carry a greater risk of high-carbon outcomes. In certain cases, bioenergy can have a carbon intensity significantly greater than coal. Bioenergy is also frequently cofired with fossil fuels; we have disaggregated these wherever possible, but in certain cases recorded bioenergy generation may include some cofiring. In these circumstances, actual emissions will be higher than we estimate.
- Hydro and other renewables: hydropower emissions are generally very low, but can vary based on emissions during construction and biogenic emissions, and so in a small number of cases can be much higher than our value. Similarly, other renewable sources such as geothermal can in rare outlier cases have high emissions.
- Gross and net generation: in the EU, we report net generation for monthly data and gross generation for yearly data. For gross generation, we perform the conversion described above, which may introduce some error.
- Combined heat and power (CHP): in many cases, thermal power plants produce both heat and electricity. Our coal factors are based on only the electricity produced by such plants, ignoring heat. It may not therefore be fair for our dataset to include all emissions attributed to cofiring plants, which actually have greater efficiency than reported when considering total useful energy output. Our gas factors account for CHP.
Coal and gas generation costs
Generation costs are calculated as short run marginal costs. These are dispatch costs accounting for fuel and carbon costs, and do not include capital or operational costs. Input price data is:
- Coal: API2 Rotterdam front month contract
- Gas: Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) day ahead contract
- Carbon: EU Emissions Trading Scheme front December contract
Plant efficiency assumptions are:
- Coal: 40%
- Gas: 55% (Lower Heating Value/Net Calorific Value)
Missing solar generation additions
Solar generation is analysed in countries where we have confirmation that some solar is absent in reporting (Austria, Czechia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden) and also in Germany which displayed unusually low solar growth. Solar performance is analysed by calculating a performance factor from generation, capacity and solar irradiation and applying a recent historical average to 2023 generation, adjusting for the proportion of capacity we believe to not be reported. In Germany and Spain this analysis accounts for the timing, location and type (metered/unmetered) of solar capacity installations and irradiance; in other countries it is based on national end-of-year figures.
Demand analysis
Industrial production impact on electricity demand is calculated based on Eurostat data on final electricity consumption in industry by sub sector and Eurostat data on industrial production by sub-sector with annual data until 2022 and monthly data for January-October 2023. Final electricity consumption in each industry sub-sector as of 2021 (in TWh) is assumed to have changed by the same percentage as a relevant industrial production index in 2022 and 2023. For 2023, the average annual change in industrial production in January-October is used.
The electrification impact on the 2023 vs 2021 change in EU electricity demand is estimated separately for electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps and electrolysers:
- The additional electricity demand attributed to EVs is calculated using data on the EU battery-electric vehicles fleet from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory (battery-electric vehicles number for 2023 estimated based on the annual change in monthly registrations for January-October 2023). Passenger cars are assumed to consume on average 2.41 MWh per year based on 200 Wh per km average consumption and 12,000 km per year average travel (33 km per day). The average travel is calculated from the annual vehicle-km data available for 15 EU countries divided by the stock of vehicles in each country and weighted by the number of vehicles per country. Average consumption for a light commercial vehicle is assumed to be 5.62 MWh per year (70 km per day, 220 Wh per km, taking into account mileage data from Klauenberg et al, 2016) and a bus is assumed to consume on average 80.3 MWh per year (200 km per day, 1,100 Wh per km).
- For electrolysers, 500 MW installed by the end of 2023, as per the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review 2023, assuming 65% utilisation rate.
- For heat pumps, three million units were sold in 2022, as per the European Heat Pump Market and Statistics Report 2023, assuming the same level of sales in 2023. The electricity consumption estimates assume that heat pumps consume about 5MWh/unit/year.
Value factor analysis
Value factors are calculated using hourly day-ahead prices from ENTSO-E and hourly generation data as described above. A marginal price-taking solar + storage unit is modelled with the following assumptions, based on a representative unit described by NREL.
- 130 MW DC solar array with output based on national generation data
- 60 MW DC battery with 2 hr (120 MWh) energy capacity
- 100 MW AC inverter
- 87% round trip efficiency, implemented on charging side, such that the battery charge rate is 87% of the panel discharge rate into the battery (i.e. a maximum charge rate of 52.2 MW)
- 0 MWh minimum state of charge
The cycle strategy is as follows:
- Peak charging and discharging hours are parameterised by finding average minimum daytime and maximum evening price hours per quarter per country. These tend to be around midday and 6-7pm.
- Charge symmetrically around peak hours, maintaining a level output profile to the grid. Any generation that would otherwise be curtailed (e.g. when the array output is bigger than the inverter capacity) is used to charge the battery if possible. The battery is charged as much as is possible.
- Discharge symmetrically around peak hour at maximum possible rate
- No charging from the grid is allowed
This strategy is intentionally simple and is not optimised with real-time price information. It therefore represents an underestimate of the true marginal value of storage.
Other data sources
Solar capacity data is provided by SolarPower Europe, measured in MW DC. Coal capacity is the latest data from Beyond Fossil Fuels’ European Coal Plant Database. Gas demand is from Eurostat annual data 2000-2022, with 2023 estimated based on average annual change over January-September 2023 from Eurostat monthly data. Weather data is ERA5 reanalysis data, in most cases extracted via Teal.
Acknowledgements
Sarah Brown, Dave Jones, Nicolas Fulghum, Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart, Alison Candlin, Matt Ewen, Paweł Czyżak, Kostantsa Rangelova, Leo Heberer, Chris Rosslowe, Reynaldo Dizon, Josie Murdoch, Hannah Broadbent, Phil MacDonald, Sam Hawkins, Richard Black, Aditya Lolla, Harry Benham.
Peer reviewersHannah Ritchie (Our World in Data), Kingsmill Bond (RMI), Giovanni Sgaravatti (Bruegel), Bram Claeys (RAP Online), Vilislava Ivanova (E3G).
Image creditMauritius images GmbH / Alamy Stock Photo