Highlights
95%
EU coal generation in 2030 in just Poland, Czechia and Bulgaria
-83%
Planned fall in EU coal generation from 2015 to 2030
About
Germany’s announcement that it will aim to exit coal power by 2030 leaves the EU’s remaining coal countries exposed.
This research assesses the EU’s progress on coal power according to the latest national government plans.
Executive summary
Poland, Czechia and Bulgaria isolated on coal power
Charles Moore European Programme Lead, Ember
Germany’s new government understands that waiting until 2038 to end coal power makes no sense for the economy or the environment. A 2030 German coal exit leaves nowhere to hide for Poland, Czechia and Bulgaria. The rest of the EU are doing their part on coal and phasing it out this decade in line with what is needed for 1.5C. Those left behind will face high electricity prices, an uncompetitive economy and increasing pressure to act as the climate crisis unfolds.
Chapter 1
The EU moves closer to a 2030 coal phase-out
According to our new assessment of the latest national government plans (a full list of sources is provided below) electricity generation from coal is now expected to decline to just 118 TWh by 2030, representing an 83% fall compared to 2015 levels. This means that in less than 2 years since EU countries submitted their NECPs, planned electricity generation from coal in 2030 in the EU has already more than halved (-58%). As a result, an additional 89-152 MT of CO2 [1] will be avoided in 2030, equivalent to 2-3% of EU-27 1990 GHG emissions, or taking a further 53-90 million cars [2] off the road.
[1] Lower end, all coal replaced with fossil gas, upper end, all coal replaced with zero emissions electricity. Assumes an average emissions intensity of electricity generated from coal (including both hard coal and lignite) of 925gCO2/KWh and 380gCO2/KWh for fossil gas.
[2] Average age of 11.5 years (source), 140gCO2/km (2010 EEA new cars), 12,000km/year (source).
Chapter 2
The EU’s remaining coal power problem is focused in three countries
Croatia, Romania and Slovenia plan a small amount of coal generation in 2030, but they will all phase out coal power in the early 2030s.
Conclusion
Coal exit is an environmental and economic imperative
The growing momentum towards a 2030 coal phase-out in Europe underscores the fact that an urgent transition from coal to clean electricity is the best choice for the economy, health and climate.
To limit global temperature rise to 1.5C all EU countries must play their part and end coal power by 2030.
Ending coal power is not just an environmental imperative, it is increasingly an economic imperative.
Europe’s coal power plants will already be hitting the wall financially throughout the 2020s as clean power deployment accelerates around Europe. Without a realistic coal phase-out date, planning a just transition that benefits workers and communities will be impossible.
Countries that do not wake up to this reality will face high electricity prices, an uncompetitive economy and increasing pressure to act as the climate crisis unfolds.
Supporting Material
Downloads
Methodology
Sources and methodology
Countries with announced coal phase-outs by 2030 or earlier (including Germany), or which have no coal power plants are assumed to have zero electricity generation from coal in 2030. For countries which have not committed to a 2030 coal phase-out the sources for electricity generation from coal in 2030 are provided in the table below. Our data is displayed as gross electricity generation, where required a net to gross conversion factor of 1.1 has been applied. Historic electricity generation is sourced from The European Power Sector in 2020. The text for the country profiles above has been adapted from Europe Beyond Coal’s coal exit tracker.
